›creator—idalessiorastani—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
AR
Alessio Rastani
@alessiorastani · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 99 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
TECHNI
RISK
AGGRES
TIER
EVALUA
PRED
135
GRADE
C+
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG ✓ · n=99
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=99 · SIG 100.0% · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
50
135 CALLS
α
63
+2.7%
CAL
79
BRIER
SNT
95
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
2
3%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
61
SHARPE
CRD
56
C+
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE100
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/135
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-20SI=FIn the longer term, silver could test the prior highs from 2011 near the $45-$50 region.5+_YEARS60[BUY]WRG−8.8%—---
04-20SI=FSilver will reach much higher levels in the next few years.1-2_YEARS60[BUY]WRG−8.8%—---
04-20CL=FThe recent drop in crude oil prices is not even a correction yet, as it has only lasted nine days.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT+11.1%—---
04-20CL=FThe recent pullback in crude oil prices is a healthy pullback.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT+11.1%—---
04-20SI=FThe silver market is still a bull market.MONTHS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT−8.8%—---
04-20SI=FThe current action in the silver market is a secondary reaction against a bull market, which is a correction, but not yet a bear market.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT−8.8%—---
04-20SI=FIf silver experiences another pullback or major correction, the speaker will continue to load up on the metal.UNSPECIFIED60[BUY]WRG−8.8%—---
04-20SI=FSilver could go to and perhaps take out the 2011 highs (near $49.50) in the next year or two.1-2_YEARS60[BUY]WRG−8.8%—---
04-20SI=FThe speaker intends to buy more silver if there is another major correction.UNSPECIFIED85[BUY]PND+0.0%—---
04-20SI=FSilver is likely to move to new all-time highs, surpassing the 2011 highs.UNSPECIFIED60[BUY]PND+0.0%—---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
timing issue
n=1
A significant portion of predictions and their 'verified outcomes' are dated in the future (2026), suggesting this dataset is simulated or mock data. This fundamentally impacts the real-world interpretation of the guru's reported historical performance and predictive abilities.
oversimplification
n=1
Some predictions rely on rigid interpretations of complex theories or other analysts' long-term cycle analysis (e.g., Bob Prechter's bear market forecast to 2032), which have been shown to be incorrect in specific instances, potentially oversimplifying market dynamics.
benchmark flattery
n=1
For some 'correct' predictions, particularly in volatile assets like Bitcoin, the associated alpha is significantly negative, indicating that while the directional call was right, the asset underperformed its benchmark, which could be misleading if only raw accuracy is considered.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
SI=F26482%
BTC-USD3643%
GC=F2—
stock market2167%
CL=F50%