◉ VERIFIED PREDICTIONS INDEX—4,318 CREATORS GRADED
The receipts on
your finance guru,
/ audited.
A research instrument for retail investors, built with the rigor its subjects rarely apply to themselves. Every prediction — extracted, verified, graded against the tape.
▸ CREATORS.GRADED
4,318
▸ PRED.VERIFIED
298,401
▸ BENCHMARK
SPY·BTC·SECTOR
▸ ARCH.DELETIONS
14,886
▸ LAST.REFRESH
12m AGO
▸ RUN.AUDIT — paste a handle, channel, or clip URL
▸ FEATURED.AUDIT · APR 21 · 14 MIN READID 0xWY-1204
Marcus Wynn called the bottom in March 2024.
He also called it in nineteen other months.
Across 1,204 graded predictions on YouTube, X, and his Substack, Marcus’s directional accuracy on stated 90-day horizons sits at 51% — three points above a coin flip, and 11.4 points below the audience that paid him for it.
◉ Marcus Wynn · @MeetMarcusWynn · n=1,204 · SIG 99%GRADE C−
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸INDEX.MOVERS · 7DFULL·BOARD →
NO GRADED CREATORS YET
▸ METHOD · 9 DIMENSIONS SCORED PER CREATOR
▸ 01
Prediction accuracy
Did the call resolve in the stated direction within the stated window?
▸ 02
Alpha vs benchmark
Excess return above SPY (or asset-appropriate benchmark) across four horizons.
▸ 03
Confidence calibration
When they say “100% certain” — how often is it right?
▸ 04
Sentiment consistency
Does Tuesday’s thesis survive Thursday’s tape?
▸ 05
Risk awareness
Are downside scenarios stated, or only upside ones?
▸ 06
Disclosure quality
Holdings disclosed? Promotions tagged? Or radio silence?
▸ 07
Survivorship honesty
Are losers still on the timeline, or have they been quietly archived?
▸ 08
Risk-adjusted score
Sharpe-style scaling: returns judged against volatility taken on.
▸ 09
Overall credibility
Composite. Bayesian-weighted. Significance-flagged. Not a vibe.
▸ METHODOLOGY
We don’t grade vibes. We grade verifiable claims against the tape.
[01] CLAIM EXTRACTION
GPT-class extraction with human review on every flagged claim. Ambiguous statements are dropped, not interpreted.
[02] OUTCOME VERIFICATION
Adjusted close from primary exchanges. No after-hours cherry picking. Benchmarks chosen before, not after, the window resolves.
[03] STATISTICAL FLOORS
No credibility grade until n ≥ 30 verified predictions. Below that: “insufficient sample.”
[04] SURVIVORSHIP AUDIT
Every deleted video, archived tweet, and unlisted upload is preserved with timestamp. Disappeared losers still count.
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Free scans. Pro adds watchlists, alerts, and the full prediction archive per creator.
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Citable methodology, exportable receipts, embargoed access to new audits before publication.
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