›creator—idandreijikh—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
AJ
Andrei Jikh
@andreijikh · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 18 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
NARRAT
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
PRELIM
PRED
36
GRADE
D-
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=18
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=18 · SIG 100.0% · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
78
36 CALLS
α
0
−14.9%
CAL
88
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
41
SHARPE
CRD
37
D-
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE36
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/36
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-20global economyThe world is about to go through a really bad recession.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-20energy prices, food prices, global economyIf the Middle East conflict drags on, energy and food prices will spike higher, stunting economic growth across the globe.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-11DX-Y.NYBA US retreat and failure in restoring order will accelerate countries' decisions to price their oil in currencies other than the US dollar.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND−3.7%—---
04-11US global influenceA US retreat and failure to restore order in a situation like the Iran shipping lane will accelerate the end of the US Empire.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-11InflationIf the Fed prints money, buys treasuries, caps yields, and does yield curve control while oil prices are rising, it will cause inflation, potentially reaching double digits or worse, making 2021 inflation look mild.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-11Global economyA recession in the US, coupled with a negative net international investment position, will trigger a debt death spiral that affects the rest of the world.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-11US stock marketRising Treasury yields (to 5-6% or higher) will crush the US stock market.UNSPECIFIED85[AVOID]PND——---
04-11US economyIf markets go down, tax revenues will go down, leading to exploding deficits, weaker housing, collapsed consumer spending, bank losses, and a recession.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-11US tax revenuesUS tax revenues will decrease if stock markets go down.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-11US government deficitUS deficits will explode.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]COR——---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=2
oversimplification
n=1
The high reported accuracy (77.8%) primarily reflects directional correctness, but this does not translate to positive alpha. Several 'correct' predictions, especially in crypto, showed significant underperformance against benchmarks, misleadingly implying investment success.
timing issue
n=1
A significant portion of predictions are still pending, and the 'is_preliminary' flag indicates that the current metrics are based on a limited dataset (18 scored out of 36 total predictions), which may not fully represent long-term performance.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC5100%
US stock market50%
DX-Y.NYB—
US economy1—
Treasury yields50%