›creator—idaustinhankwitz—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
AH
Austin Hankwitz
@austinhankwitz · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 4 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
NARRAT
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
INSUFF
PRED
14
GRADE
D-
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=4
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=4 · SIG — · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
100
14 CALLS
α
0
−15.6%
CAL
98
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
42
SHARPE
CRD
37
D-
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE14
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/14
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
08-14CryptocurrencyInvestors should put 3% of their net worth into cryptocurrency for the next 10-20 years, as risk-on assets like crypto tend to perform well when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates during economic prosperity.5+_YEARS60[BUY]PND——---
08-14CryptocurrencyA significant amount of the $8.7 trillion held in 401k plans will be invested in cryptocurrency.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
08-14General macro (interest rates)The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on September 17th.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
08-14EconomyFederal Reserve interest rate cuts will stimulate the economy.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
08-14CryptocurrencyCryptocurrency will perform well due to Fed rate cuts and new capital inflows from 401ks and institutional investment.5+_YEARS85[BUY]PND——---
08-14CryptocurrencyInvestors should allocate 3% of their net worth into cryptocurrency for the next 10-20 years.5+_YEARS60[BUY]PND——---
08-14Federal Reserve Interest RatesThe Federal Reserve has a 93.5% chance of cutting interest rates on September 17th.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
08-14Interest RatesThere is a 93.5% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates on September 17th.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
08-14CryptocurrencyInvest 3% of your net worth into cryptocurrency and hold it for the next 10 to 20 years.5+_YEARS85[BUY]PND——---
03-04FS, FI ETFsIndividuals planning for early retirement need to be aware of the FIRE ETFs (FS and FI).UNSPECIFIED85[BUY]PND——---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=2
oversimplification
n=1
The 'correct' outcome for Bitcoin price target predictions (e.g., $95,000) is highly misleading given the actual price at verification was significantly lower ($33k-$34k) and the calls resulted in substantial negative alpha. This suggests an overly broad or flawed definition of 'correct' outcome for price targets.
timing issue
n=1
The assessment is based on a very preliminary dataset of only 4 scored predictions, which are all clustered on a single date, limiting the representativeness and reliability of the overall performance metrics.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
Cryptocurrency—
BTC4100%
General macro (interest rates)—
Economy—
Federal Reserve Interest Rates—