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Commodity Culture

@commodityculture · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 25 VERIFIED · < 1M
CAT
NARRATIVE
Investing style category
RISK
SPECULATIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
EVALUABLE
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
150
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
B+
Overall letter grade
65
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
B+
SIG ✓ · n=25
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=25
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
66
150 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
81
+6.2%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
84
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
100
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
100
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcome
HIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all100
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS100 PREDICTIONS
90 MORE
HG=F[BUY]
2026-05-15

Copper has broken out to an all-time high.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
Liquid fuels (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The consumption of liquid fuels, including gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, is projected to grow worldwide.

WRGCONF 60
broader economy, precious metals[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-08

The war in Iran will affect the broader economy and precious metals prices.

CORCONF 60
Global Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-08

China could become the next global economic superpower.

PNDCONF 60
GC=F[BUY]
2026-05-06

Gold's next price target is $6,000 an ounce.

PND−0.7%CONF 85
SI=F[BUY]
2026-05-06

There is a real rush for silver.

COR+12.8%CONF 85
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-06

The petrodollar is effectively dead.

PND−2.9%CONF 85
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-06

The petrodollar is as good as dead.

PND−2.1%CONF 85
GC=F[BUY]
2026-05-06

Gold's next stop is $6,000 an ounce.

PND+0.7%CONF 85
China (geopolitics/economy)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-05

China is fighting back significantly against US sanctions.

CORCONF 85
GC=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-01

Gold price will reach new all-time highs in 2026.

PND−1.3%CONF 85
geopolitical stability[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-01

The Iranian conflict is not going to end anytime soon.

PNDCONF 60
Global Economy, Credit Markets[AVOID]
2026-04-24

A coming credit bubble burst could send the global economy into oblivion.

PNDCONF 60
Geopolitics, US military[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

If the US uses ground troops in Iran, there will be massive casualties.

PNDCONF 60
Geopolitics, Iran conflict[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

It is highly unlikely that Iran will give in or surrender after a US attack.

PNDCONF 85
Geopolitics, Iran conflict[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

Soon after April 20th, America will launch a massive attack on Iran.

PNDCONF 85
Geopolitics, Iran conflict[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

The US attack on Iran will be on Bander Abbus, not on the islands in the straits like Kagg.

PNDCONF 60
US Economy (Consumer Credit)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

Credit card delinquencies and defaults in the US are increasing and will continue to worsen.

PNDCONF 60
GC=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-16

The Gold Silver Ratio (GSR) will decrease from 120 down to 40.

PND−0.3%CONF 85
GC=F[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-04-16

Silver will outperform gold because it is becoming a monetary metal.

PND−0.3%CONF 60
GC=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-16

Silver will still outperform gold.

PND−0.6%CONF 60
GC=F[BUY]
2026-04-15

Gold price will reach $6,000 by the end of 2026.

PND−2.4%CONF 85
GC=F[BUY]
2026-04-15

Gold price will reach $7,000 by the end of 2027.

PND−2.4%CONF 85
GC=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Gold prices will stabilize around $4,700-$4,800.

PND−1.9%CONF 60
GC=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

I am very bullish on gold, silver, and copper.

PND−1.3%CONF 85
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
A substantial number of predictions are still pending, as many long-term outlooks and ambitious price targets have not yet reached their specified time horizons. This could impact the current accuracy metrics, as some high-confidence calls are unresolved.
oversimplification
n=1
The use of 'hype-based' and 'fear-based' emotional tones, alongside claims of 'once-in-a-lifetime opportunities' and dire geopolitical warnings, might oversimplify complex market dynamics and appeal to emotional responses rather than purely rational analysis.
macro shock
n=1
The guru's focus on macro-geopolitical events (e.g., wars, credit bubble bursts, hyperinflation) means many predictions are subject to highly unpredictable external shocks, which can inherently make outcomes more volatile and difficult to forecast.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
GC=F
SI=F779%
URA
DX-Y.NYB
CL=F50%