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EllioTrades
@elliotrades_official · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 5 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
HYBRID
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
PRELIM
PRED
14
GRADE
D-
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=5
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=5 · SIG 100.0% · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
100
14 CALLS
α
0
−15.8%
CAL
98
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
42
SHARPE
CRD
37
D-
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE14
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/14
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-17BTCBitcoin's move above $74,000 constitutes a major market pivot.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.3%—---
04-17AI sectorIf the current AI market speculative trend (AI bubble) repeats the pattern of the 2017 Bitcoin top, the economic consequences will be more significant due to AI's larger economic footprint.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-17Newbird AINewbird AI's stock performance and underlying situation will likely resemble the Long Island Iced Tea Blockchain Company, leading to a stock crash and potential legal repercussions.WEEKS60[AVOID]PND——---
04-14cryptoNew attack vectors will quite likely be affecting some of the core services in crypto.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-14cryptoAnthropic's new mythos model is simply too powerful and is going to open up all kinds of attack vectors.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-14cryptoIt is very possible that the new attack vectors could lead to the full-scale hacking of crypto's most valuable and most critical infrastructure.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-14cryptoSome of crypto's core infrastructure will be under new levels of scrutiny and new levels of attack.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-14cryptoA whole new class of attack vector is coming to crypto.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
11-01BTCBitcoin will reach $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−16.4%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin is breaking out.UNSPECIFIED85[BUY]COR−16.4%—---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
oversimplification
n=1
The reported 100% accuracy is highly misleading. Predictions for ambitious Bitcoin price targets (e.g., $95,000) were marked 'correct' even when the asset's price at verification was significantly lower (e.g., ~$33), implying that 'correct' refers to general direction only, rather than achieving the stated target. This is exacerbated by the substantial negative average alpha.
timing issue
n=1
All currently scored predictions originate from a single day (2024-11-01), creating a narrow and potentially unrepresentative sample that does not reflect a sustained track record. Additionally, several pending predictions are dated in 2026, highlighting temporal inconsistencies in the dataset.
data cherry picking
n=1
The extremely limited number of scored predictions (5 out of 14 total) means the overall metrics are highly preliminary and may not accurately represent the guru's long-term performance or typical analysis quality.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC5100%
crypto—
AI sector—
Newbird AI—