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EllioTrades

@elliotrades_official · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 0 VERIFIED · 2M
CAT
HYBRID
Investing style category
RISK
AGGRESSIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
61
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D
Overall letter grade
43
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D
SIG — · n=0
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=0
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
81
61 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
50
+0.0%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
79
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
97
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
50
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all61
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS61 PREDICTIONS
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin is going to return to the high $90,000s territory.

PND—CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-06-07

Money currently fleeing digital assets due to fear of software's destruction by AI will continue to leave Bitcoin.

PND—CONF 85
Enterprise software (sector)[AVOID]
2026-06-07

Enterprise software will become irrelevant as AI develops the capability to code on par with human software engineers.

PND—CONF 85
Software (sector)[AVOID]
2026-06-07

If an asset is software, AI can and very soon will come to kill it.

PND—CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-06-07

AI is currently causing Bitcoin to decline because Bitcoin trades directionally almost the exact same as tech software ETFs.

PND—CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin is caught in the negative impact as AI begins to completely disrupt and consume the software as a service sector of the economy.

PND—CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin is attempting to put in a reversal, and if successful, we could see a local bottom being formed right now.

PND—CONF 60
Centralized crypto exchanges[AVOID]
2026-06-07

Centralized crypto exchanges are at high risk of failure due to balance sheet holes and lending practices in current aggressive market sell-off conditions.

PRT—CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The institutionalization of Bitcoin now poses a greater downside risk than it provided upside aid.

PND—CONF 60
Crypto, stocks, precious metals[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

A period of growth for markets, including crypto, stocks, and precious metals, is very likely after the new Fed chair, Kevin Walsh, takes office and implements his policies.

PND—CONF 60
51 MORE
Natural resources[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-07

Natural resources will be a significant investment theme due to changing global geopolitics and deglobalization.

PND—CONF 85
Cash[HOLD]
2026-06-07

Investors should critically hold some amount of cash in case of a black swan event.

COR—CONF 85
Overall market / economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The news cycle has raised the chance of a negative outcome or black swan-like event happening in 2026.

COR—CONF 60
Overall market / economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Unprecedented amounts of liquidity will be entering the market in 2026.

PND—CONF 85
Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The added liquidity is indicative of creating a 'sugar high' in the economy.

COR—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin could go slightly higher to $107,000 before a complete collapse.

PND—CONF 35
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-07

On the macro level, Bitcoin's current price action is likely just another higher low within the ongoing institutional bull market channel.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin will not repeat the 2022 market downturn because current macro conditions, such as interest rate cuts and an accelerating economy, are fundamentally different.

PND—CONF 85
Overall market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The current time is potentially one of the most interesting times ever to be invested due to inflection points in AI, cryptocurrency maturity, robotics, and new industries like space stocks.

COR—CONF 60
BTC-USD[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-07

A very significant rotation into cryptocurrency and Bitcoin is highly likely throughout 2026.

PND—CONF 85
BTC-USD[HOLD]
2026-06-07

Investors should consolidate positions and raise cash in the housekeeping zone as a precaution against a potential 2022-like fractal resulting in a lower high and subsequent decline in Bitcoin.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

If the market repeats the 2022 pattern, Bitcoin will make a lower high somewhere around $100,000.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-07

Investors should raise cash around the housekeeping zone to be able to buy more Bitcoin if it drops to lower valuations.

PND—CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-07

If Bitcoin gets above $107,000, it would indicate significant bullish momentum.

PND—CONF 60
Global markets[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The spiraling conflict between the United States and Iran has the potential to be a dagger to global markets, leading to their first major correction in years.

PND—CONF 60
Global markets[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Markets have a real potential for a serious setback.

WRG—CONF 60
Crypto and broader markets[BUY]
2026-06-07

Following the current market mess, there will be generational opportunities to accumulate and build wealth in crypto and beyond.

PND—CONF 60
Altcoins[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The recent SEC rule update could bring institutional capital into altcoins for the first time in history.

COR—CONF 60
Altcoins[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The SEC rule update sets the foundation for the next altcoin run, which will be backed by institutional capital.

COR—CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-07

The speaker has reversed his downtrend bias and is now taking long positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some altcoins.

PND—CONF 85
Crypto[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Michael Saylor's strategy may be tipping the tides and bringing crypto back into a bullish posturing.

PRT—CONF 35
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-07

The speaker is currently long Bitcoin and Ethereum and is excited about some altcoins.

PND—CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin's "real asymmetric play" is to get back up above the $80,000 level into the 80s.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[SELL]
2026-06-07

If Bitcoin fails to hold in the 70's, it will likely flip over and start seeing lower lows.

PND—CONF 60
^GSPC[AVOID]
2026-06-07

The S&P 500 is headed to fall off a cliff.

PND—CONF 85
^GSPC[AVOID]
2026-06-07

The S&P 500 could go as low as 6200, representing another 7% down from its current level, if it loses the prior weekly low range.

PND—CONF 60
^GSPC[AVOID]
2026-06-07

The S&P 500 could retest the lows from 2024, resulting in a 23% drop and a disaster zone, if it continues its decline.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-06-07

AI is destroying the entire software sector, and this impact extends to Bitcoin.

PND—CONF 85
Crypto industry (regulatory environment)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

There will be quite a bit of oversight into crypto once the Clarity Act becomes law.

PND—CONF 60
Clarity Act (crypto legislation)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The Clarity Act is very likely to clear the Senate and the House and become law.

PND—CONF 60
crypto[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The passage of the Clarity Act from the Senate Banking Committee is extremely bullish for crypto.

PND—CONF 85
Crypto industry regulatory environment[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

There will be significant oversight into the crypto industry following the passage of the Clarity Act.

PND—CONF 85
Crypto industry regulatory environment[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The Clarity Act is advancing from the Senate Banking Committee and has an 80% chance of becoming law this year.

COR—CONF 60
Crypto industry (regulatory environment)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

If the Clarity Act is not passed, a new campaign against crypto by figures like Gary Gensler or Elizabeth Warren 2.0 is not only likely but almost certain.

PND—CONF 85
Clarity Act (crypto legislation)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

If the Clarity Act actually hits the midterms, it is going to be officially dead.

COR—CONF 85
Clarity Act (crypto legislation)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

If the Clarity Act is not passed before getting too deep into summer, it will probably not get through.

COR—CONF 60
US Congress (political outcome)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

A Republican sweep of Congress in November is very unlikely.

COR—CONF 85
US political landscape[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

There is a 50% chance of a Democratic sweep, where Democrats take both the House and the Senate, happening this November.

COR—CONF 60
US political landscape[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

There is a 36% chance of a Republican Senate and a Democratic House in the upcoming November elections.

COR—CONF 60
US political landscape[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

A Republican sweep in the upcoming elections is very unlikely.

COR—CONF 85
Clarity Act (crypto industry legislation)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

The Clarity Act will be officially dead if it reaches the midterms without being passed.

PND—CONF 85
Clarity Act (crypto industry legislation)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

The Clarity Act will likely not pass if it gets too close to the midterms.

PRT—CONF 60
crypto industry[AVOID]
2026-05-07

Failure to pass the Clarity Act will lead to increased regulatory campaigns against crypto by figures like Gary Gensler or Elizabeth Warren.

WRG—CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

Bitcoin's move above $74,000 constitutes a major market pivot.

PND+0.3%CONF 60
AI sector[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

If the current AI market speculative trend (AI bubble) repeats the pattern of the 2017 Bitcoin top, the economic consequences will be more significant due to AI's larger economic footprint.

PND—CONF 60
Newbird AI[AVOID]
2026-04-17

Newbird AI's stock performance and underlying situation will likely resemble the Long Island Iced Tea Blockchain Company, leading to a stock crash and potential legal repercussions.

PND—CONF 60
crypto[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

Some of crypto's core infrastructure will be under new levels of scrutiny and new levels of attack.

PND—CONF 85
crypto[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

It is very possible that the new attack vectors could lead to the full-scale hacking of crypto's most valuable and most critical infrastructure.

PND—CONF 60
crypto[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

Anthropic's new mythos model is simply too powerful and is going to open up all kinds of attack vectors.

PND—CONF 85
crypto[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

A whole new class of attack vector is coming to crypto.

PND—CONF 85
crypto[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

New attack vectors will quite likely be affecting some of the core services in crypto.

PND—CONF 60
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
All currently scored predictions are dated in 2026, which may not reflect a real-time track record of past performance or typical market cycles.
data cherry picking
n=1
The evaluation is based on a limited subset of all predictions (18 out of 61), meaning the reported accuracy and other metrics are preliminary and may not reflect the full scope of the guru's track record.
oversimplification
n=1
Analysis often employs dramatic or absolutist language (e.g., 'destroying everything', 'complete collapse'), which can oversimplify complex market dynamics and geopolitical events.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
BTC-USD—
crypto—
US political landscape3100%
Clarity Act (crypto legislation)2100%
^GSPC—