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GG
George Gammon
@georgegammon · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 19 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
NARRAT
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
PRELIM
PRED
61
GRADE
D
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=19
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=19 · SIG 91.8% · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
29
61 CALLS
α
31
−3.7%
CAL
69
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
44
SHARPE
CRD
43
D
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE61
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/61
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
03-26Financial systemThe current situation with private credit funds like Apollo constitutes a huge systemic risk to the financial system.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-26Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, Deutsche BankThe current financial charts of major institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank resemble those of financials in 2008, indicating a similar impending crisis.UNSPECIFIED60[AVOID]PND——---
03-26private credit marketThe crisis in the private credit market is likely to get much, much worse.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-26financial systemThe current situation in the private credit market represents a huge systemic risk that cannot be ignored.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-26financial stocksThe charts of major financial institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank resemble those of financials during the 2008 crisis, implying a similar market outcome.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-26private credit assetsThe assets on the balance sheets of private credit funds need to be marked down, as they are worth pennies on the dollar.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-26Private credit marketThe crisis in the private credit market, exemplified by Apollo Debt Solutions and other major funds, is likely to get much worse.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-26Financial system / private creditThe current situation with financial institutions and private credit indicates a huge, undeniable systemic risk to the financial system.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-26Financial SystemThe crisis in private credit, exemplified by Apollo, represents a huge systemic risk.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-26Private CreditThe private credit crisis is likely to get much worse.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
timing issue
n=1
A significant portion of George Gammon's predictions are for the year 2026, meaning their outcomes are still pending. This renders the current accuracy metrics preliminary and potentially subject to change as more predictions resolve.
market conditions
n=1
Many of his 'avoid' recommendations for broad market indices like the S&P 500 were made during periods where the market has continued to show positive performance, leading to 'wrong' outcomes and negative alpha due to missed opportunities.
oversimplification
n=1
The guru frequently draws direct parallels to the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting current financial charts 'look the exact same.' This approach may oversimplify complex market dynamics and regulatory changes since 2008.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
^GSPC10—
financial system—
BTC283%
Financial system, private credit sector175%
Private credit sector2100%