›creator--idgeorgegammon--horizonALL--benchmarkSPY--updated2026-06-08

George Gammon

@georgegammon · YOUTUBE

INDEXED · 19 VERIFIED · < 1M

CAT

NARRATIVE

RISK

SPECULATIVE

TIER

PRELIMINARY

PRED

GRADE

D-

Credibility

D-

SIG — · n=19

SCORECARD · n=19

Accuracy

92 CALLS

Alpha

+0.0%

Calibration

BRIER

Sentiment

100

DRIFT

Risk

DOWNSIDE

Disclosure

Survival

ARCHIVED

Risk-Adj

SHARPE

PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE

CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING

DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M

HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0

PROMOTIONS TAGGED0

“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0

ZERO DISCLOSURE92

DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED

NO ARCHIVED CONTENT

PREDICTIONS92 PREDICTIONS

DATE▾	ASSET↕	CLAIM	CONF↕	REC	OUT↕	α↕
2026-03-26	private credit sector	The ongoing crisis with Apollo Debt Solutions and similar private credit managers is systemic and is likely to get much, much worse.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	—
2026-03-26	major financial institutions	The charts of major financial institutions involved in private credit, such as Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank, look exactly like the financials did back in 2008, signaling a similar crisis.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	—
2026-03-26	financial system	The current financial situation, particularly in the private credit sector involving institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank, presents a huge systemic risk.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	COR	—
2026-03-26	Financial System / Private Credit sector	The financial crisis stemming from private credit, involving institutions like Apollo, is likely to get much worse and represents a huge systemic risk to the market.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	COR	—
2026-03-26	financial system	The current private credit situation, involving major institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank, represents a huge systemic risk to the financial system.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	—
2026-03-26	private credit assets	Assets on the balance sheets of private credit funds need to be marked down significantly, resembling 'pennies on the dollar'.	85	[AVOID]	COR	—
2026-03-26	private credit sector	The crisis in the private credit sector, exemplified by Apollo Debt Solutions, is likely to get much worse.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	major financial institutions	The charts of major financial institutions today look exactly the same as financials did back in 2008, implying a similar market crash.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	WRG	—
2026-03-26	Financial system	The current situation with private credit funds like Apollo constitutes a huge systemic risk to the financial system.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank	The current financial charts of major institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank resemble those of financials in 2008, indicating a similar impending crisis.	60	[AVOID]	PND	—

82 MORE PREDICTIONS

DATE▾	ASSET↕	CLAIM	CONF↕	REC	OUT↕	α↕
2026-03-26	financial system	The current situation in the private credit market represents a huge systemic risk that cannot be ignored.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	financial stocks	The charts of major financial institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank resemble those of financials during the 2008 crisis, implying a similar market outcome.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	private credit assets	The assets on the balance sheets of private credit funds need to be marked down, as they are worth pennies on the dollar.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	private credit market	The crisis in the private credit market is likely to get much, much worse.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	Private credit market	The crisis in the private credit market, exemplified by Apollo Debt Solutions and other major funds, is likely to get much worse.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	Financial system / private credit	The current situation with financial institutions and private credit indicates a huge, undeniable systemic risk to the financial system.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	Financial Institutions	Current financial charts for major institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, and JP Morgan look exactly like those of 2008, implying a similar severe market downturn is probable.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	Private Credit	The private credit crisis is likely to get much worse.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	Financial System	The crisis in private credit, exemplified by Apollo, represents a huge systemic risk.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-26	Financial system, private credit sector	The current financial issues related to private credit, involving major financial institutions, constitute a huge systemic risk.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	—
2026-03-26	Private credit sector	The crisis in private credit, exemplified by Apollo Debt Solutions, is likely to get much worse.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	COR	—
2026-03-26	Major financial institutions (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank), broader financial market	The current financial situation and charts of major banks and funds bear exact similarities to the financials of 2008, indicating a potential repeat of that crisis.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	WRG	—
2026-03-20	^GSPC	The S&P 500 stock market could crash up to 77%, based on an analysis of inflation-adjusted historical performance.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	An investor who bought the S&P 500 in 1930 and held until 1985 would have essentially broken even when adjusted for inflation.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	An investor who bought the S&P 500 in the late 1960s would have had to hold until the mid-1990s just to break even when adjusted for inflation.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	+0.0%
2026-03-20	stock market	From 2000 to 2010, the stock market went down significantly over a decade.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	COR	—
2026-03-20	^GSPC	Buying and holding the S&P 500 from 1930 for 25 years would have resulted in an almost 50% loss when adjusted for inflation.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could crash by up to 77%, a warning from Michael Burry that the speaker agrees makes a lot of sense.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	The 'buy and hold' strategy for the S&P 500 is flawed and has historically resulted in long periods of flat or negative real returns.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could crash up to 77% (adjusted for inflation).	85	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could crash by up to 77%.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	Stock market	The stock market is facing a potential crash, as warned by Michael Burry.	85	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-20	^GSPC	Michael Burry is warning of a stock market crash that could see the S&P 500 fall by up to 77%.	85	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	The 'buy and hold' investment strategy for the S&P 500 is not a guarantee of returns and has historically led to massive losses or flat performance over decades, especially when adjusted for inflation.	85	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could crash by up to 77%, echoing Michael Burry's dire warning.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	A 'buy and hold' strategy for the S&P 500 is not a guaranteed success and could lead to significant losses or stagnation for decades, especially when adjusted for inflation.	85	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could crash up to 77%.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-20	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could experience a crash of up to 77%.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-18	financial system	The current financial events could be the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 (GFC 2.0).	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	WRG	—
2026-03-18	financial markets	Private credit will be the source of the next major crisis in the financial markets.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	—
2026-03-18	stock market	Consistently buying the dip in the current market, while previously successful, is akin to playing Russian roulette and will eventually lead to major problems.	60	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-18	^GSPC	The multi-trillion dollar private credit bubble is collapsing, which could trigger a GFC 2.0 scenario where the S&P 500 experiences significant losses, potentially being cut in half as it was in 2008.	85	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-18	global financial system	The current situation could be the beginning process of a GFC 2.0 playing out right now.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	COR	—
2026-03-18	private credit sector	The multi-trillion dollar bubble that is private credit is collapsing right in front of our eyes.	85	[AVOID]	PRT	—
2026-03-18	financial markets	Private credit is going to be the next big crisis in the financial markets.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	—
2026-03-18	^GSPC	Buying the dip in the current market cycle (similar to 2008) will lead to investors getting 'absolutely annihilated' as the market 'bottom completely falls out', potentially cutting portfolios in half.	85	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-18	Financial markets	Private credit will be the cause of the next big crisis in the financial markets.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-18	Financial markets	The financial markets could be experiencing the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-18	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could decline by 50%, similar to its performance during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-18	Stock market	Investors buying the dip in the current market cycle risk significant losses because the market bottom will completely fall out.	85	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-18	Private credit portfolios	There could be very significant losses across private credit portfolios.	60	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-18	private credit market	The multi-trillion dollar bubble in private credit is currently collapsing.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-18	financial markets	Private credit is going to be the next major crisis in the financial markets.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-18	private credit portfolios	Investors could face very significant losses across private credit portfolios.	60	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-18	financial system	The current situation could be the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-18	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could fall by 50% as it did during the 2008 financial crisis.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-18	financial markets	There are eerie similarities between the financial conditions of 2026 and 2008, suggesting a similar downturn.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-18	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could experience a 50% decline, similar to past market cycles.	60	[AVOID]	WRG	+0.0%
2026-03-18	Financial markets / global economy	The current financial environment, particularly with private credit, could be the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 (GFC 2.0).	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-18	Private Credit	Private credit is going to be the source of the next big crisis in the financial markets.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-18	^GSPC	Investors who 'buy the dip' during the current market cycle, which resembles 2008, will face significant losses when the bottom falls out.	85	[AVOID]	PND	+0.0%
2026-03-18	Global Financial System	The beginning process of a GFC 2.0 could be playing out now.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-18	Private Credit portfolios	Portfolios exposed to private credit could experience very significant losses.	60	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-18	^GSPC	The current private credit crisis could be the beginning of a GFC 2.0, which would lead to very significant losses across portfolios and impact jobs and banks.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	+0.0%
2026-03-18	^GSPC	The S&P 500 could decline by 50%, similar to the 2008-2009 period.	60	[AVOID]	PND	+0.0%
2026-03-18	General market, investor portfolios	Investors who continue to buy the dip during the current market cycle will face significant losses.	85	[AVOID]	PRT	—
2026-03-18	Private credit sector	The multi-trillion dollar private credit bubble is currently collapsing.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	COR	—
2026-03-13	financial system	The current private credit crisis, despite claims of containment, is the beginning of a GFC 2.0, similar to how the subprime mortgage crisis unfolded.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	WRG	—
2026-03-13	financial system	If JP Morgan were to fail, the entire financial system would collapse.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	WRG	—
2026-03-13	financial institutions	It is only a matter of time before major financial institutions like BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl, already under pressure from the private credit crisis, will experience significantly larger declines in their share prices.	60	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-13	BLK, BX, OWL	Major financial institutions such as BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl, which have already seen their share prices plummet due to the private credit debacle, will experience further significant declines in their share prices.	85	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-13	JP Morgan, Financial System	JP Morgan's struggles with the private credit crisis indicate huge systemic risks, and its failure would lead to the collapse of the entire financial system.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	WRG	—
2026-03-13	Financial System / Private Credit	The current private credit crisis is the beginning of a GFC 2.0, mirroring the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and will not be contained.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	WRG	—
2026-03-13	financial system	If JP Morgan goes down, the whole financial system will go down.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-13	financial system	JP Morgan has revealed huge systemic risks in the financial system.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	COR	—
2026-03-13	BlackRock	It's only a matter of time before the share prices of major financial institutions involved in private credit (like BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl) go down 'a heck of a lot more.'	85	[SELL]	PND	—
2026-03-13	global financial system	The current situation with private credit and major banks (JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl) represents the beginning of a GFC 2.0, where private credit will not be contained.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PRT	—
2026-03-13	BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl	Major financial institutions heavily invested in private credit, such as BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl, will experience significant further declines in their share prices.	85	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-13	JP Morgan, financial system	If JP Morgan experiences a severe downturn, the entire financial system will collapse.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-13	Financial system, private credit sector	The current private credit crisis could be the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0, similar to how the subprime crisis evolved.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-13	financial system	If JP Morgan fails due to systemic risks in the financial system, the entire system will collapse.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-13	financial system	We are seeing the beginnings of a GFC 2.0 (Global Financial Crisis 2.0) driven by the private credit crisis, which authorities are incorrectly claiming is 'contained'.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-13	financial stocks	It is only a matter of time before the share prices of major financial institutions like BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl go down a lot more due to the private credit crisis.	85	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-13	BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl	The share prices of BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl are destined to go down a heck of a lot more.	85	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-13	Financial system / JP Morgan	If JP Morgan fails due to the private credit crisis, the entire financial system will collapse.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-13	Financial system / private credit	We could be seeing the beginnings of a GFC 2.0, with the private credit crisis serving as the catalyst, akin to the subprime crisis of 2008.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-13	BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley	It's just a matter of time before major financial institutions like BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl experience significant further declines in their share prices due to the private credit crisis.	60	[AVOID]	PND	—
2026-03-13	Global Financial System	We could be seeing the beginning of a GFC 2.0.	60	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-13	JP Morgan	If JP Morgan collapses, the entire financial system will collapse.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	PND	—
2026-03-13	JP Morgan, entire financial system	If JP Morgan collapses due to its exposure to the private credit crisis, it will trigger the downfall of the entire financial system.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	WRG	—
2026-03-13	Financial system, private credit sector	The current situation with private credit, involving major banks like JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, indicates the potential beginning of a GFC 2.0, with private credit playing the role of the new subprime crisis.	85	[GENERAL_MACRO]	COR	—
2026-03-13	BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Blue Owl (OWL)	The share prices of major asset managers like BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl will decline significantly further due to their involvement in the private credit crisis.	85	[AVOID]	PND	—

private credit sector[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The ongoing crisis with Apollo Debt Solutions and similar private credit managers is systemic and is likely to get much, much worse.

PRT—CONF 60

major financial institutions[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The charts of major financial institutions involved in private credit, such as Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank, look exactly like the financials did back in 2008, signaling a similar crisis.

PRT—CONF 85

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The current financial situation, particularly in the private credit sector involving institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank, presents a huge systemic risk.

COR—CONF 85

Financial System / Private Credit sector[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The financial crisis stemming from private credit, involving institutions like Apollo, is likely to get much worse and represents a huge systemic risk to the market.

COR—CONF 85

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The current private credit situation, involving major institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank, represents a huge systemic risk to the financial system.

PRT—CONF 85

private credit assets[AVOID]

2026-03-26

Assets on the balance sheets of private credit funds need to be marked down significantly, resembling 'pennies on the dollar'.

COR—CONF 85

private credit sector[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The crisis in the private credit sector, exemplified by Apollo Debt Solutions, is likely to get much worse.

PND—CONF 60

major financial institutions[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The charts of major financial institutions today look exactly the same as financials did back in 2008, implying a similar market crash.

WRG—CONF 85

Financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The current situation with private credit funds like Apollo constitutes a huge systemic risk to the financial system.

PND—CONF 85

Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank[AVOID]

2026-03-26

The current financial charts of major institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank resemble those of financials in 2008, indicating a similar impending crisis.

PND—CONF 60

82 MORE

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The current situation in the private credit market represents a huge systemic risk that cannot be ignored.

PND—CONF 85

financial stocks[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The charts of major financial institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, and Deutsche Bank resemble those of financials during the 2008 crisis, implying a similar market outcome.

PND—CONF 85

private credit assets[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The assets on the balance sheets of private credit funds need to be marked down, as they are worth pennies on the dollar.

PND—CONF 85

private credit market[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The crisis in the private credit market is likely to get much, much worse.

PND—CONF 85

Private credit market[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The crisis in the private credit market, exemplified by Apollo Debt Solutions and other major funds, is likely to get much worse.

PND—CONF 60

Financial system / private credit[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The current situation with financial institutions and private credit indicates a huge, undeniable systemic risk to the financial system.

PND—CONF 85

Financial Institutions[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

Current financial charts for major institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, and JP Morgan look exactly like those of 2008, implying a similar severe market downturn is probable.

PND—CONF 85

Private Credit[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The private credit crisis is likely to get much worse.

PND—CONF 60

Financial System[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The crisis in private credit, exemplified by Apollo, represents a huge systemic risk.

PND—CONF 85

Financial system, private credit sector[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The current financial issues related to private credit, involving major financial institutions, constitute a huge systemic risk.

PRT—CONF 85

Private credit sector[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The crisis in private credit, exemplified by Apollo Debt Solutions, is likely to get much worse.

COR—CONF 85

Major financial institutions (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Morgan Stanley, KKR, JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank), broader financial market[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-26

The current financial situation and charts of major banks and funds bear exact similarities to the financials of 2008, indicating a potential repeat of that crisis.

WRG—CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The S&P 500 stock market could crash up to 77%, based on an analysis of inflation-adjusted historical performance.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-20

An investor who bought the S&P 500 in 1930 and held until 1985 would have essentially broken even when adjusted for inflation.

PRT+0.0%CONF 85

^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-20

An investor who bought the S&P 500 in the late 1960s would have had to hold until the mid-1990s just to break even when adjusted for inflation.

PRT+0.0%CONF 85

stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-20

From 2000 to 2010, the stock market went down significantly over a decade.

COR—CONF 85

^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-20

Buying and holding the S&P 500 from 1930 for 25 years would have resulted in an almost 50% loss when adjusted for inflation.

PRT+0.0%CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The S&P 500 could crash by up to 77%, a warning from Michael Burry that the speaker agrees makes a lot of sense.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The 'buy and hold' strategy for the S&P 500 is flawed and has historically resulted in long periods of flat or negative real returns.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The S&P 500 could crash up to 77% (adjusted for inflation).

WRG+0.0%CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The S&P 500 could crash by up to 77%.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

Stock market[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The stock market is facing a potential crash, as warned by Michael Burry.

PND—CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

Michael Burry is warning of a stock market crash that could see the S&P 500 fall by up to 77%.

WRG+0.0%CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The 'buy and hold' investment strategy for the S&P 500 is not a guarantee of returns and has historically led to massive losses or flat performance over decades, especially when adjusted for inflation.

WRG+0.0%CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The S&P 500 could crash by up to 77%, echoing Michael Burry's dire warning.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

A 'buy and hold' strategy for the S&P 500 is not a guaranteed success and could lead to significant losses or stagnation for decades, especially when adjusted for inflation.

WRG+0.0%CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The S&P 500 could crash up to 77%.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-20

The S&P 500 could experience a crash of up to 77%.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

The current financial events could be the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 (GFC 2.0).

WRG—CONF 60

financial markets[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

Private credit will be the source of the next major crisis in the financial markets.

PRT—CONF 85

stock market[AVOID]

2026-03-18

Consistently buying the dip in the current market, while previously successful, is akin to playing Russian roulette and will eventually lead to major problems.

PND—CONF 60

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-18

The multi-trillion dollar private credit bubble is collapsing, which could trigger a GFC 2.0 scenario where the S&P 500 experiences significant losses, potentially being cut in half as it was in 2008.

WRG+0.0%CONF 85

global financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

The current situation could be the beginning process of a GFC 2.0 playing out right now.

COR—CONF 60

private credit sector[AVOID]

2026-03-18

The multi-trillion dollar bubble that is private credit is collapsing right in front of our eyes.

PRT—CONF 85

financial markets[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

Private credit is going to be the next big crisis in the financial markets.

PRT—CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-18

Buying the dip in the current market cycle (similar to 2008) will lead to investors getting 'absolutely annihilated' as the market 'bottom completely falls out', potentially cutting portfolios in half.

WRG+0.0%CONF 85

Financial markets[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

Private credit will be the cause of the next big crisis in the financial markets.

PND—CONF 85

Financial markets[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

The financial markets could be experiencing the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0.

PND—CONF 60

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-18

The S&P 500 could decline by 50%, similar to its performance during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

Stock market[AVOID]

2026-03-18

Investors buying the dip in the current market cycle risk significant losses because the market bottom will completely fall out.

PND—CONF 85

Private credit portfolios[AVOID]

2026-03-18

There could be very significant losses across private credit portfolios.

PND—CONF 60

private credit market[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

The multi-trillion dollar bubble in private credit is currently collapsing.

PND—CONF 85

financial markets[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

Private credit is going to be the next major crisis in the financial markets.

PND—CONF 85

private credit portfolios[AVOID]

2026-03-18

Investors could face very significant losses across private credit portfolios.

PND—CONF 60

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

The current situation could be the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0.

PND—CONF 60

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-18

The S&P 500 could fall by 50% as it did during the 2008 financial crisis.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

financial markets[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

There are eerie similarities between the financial conditions of 2026 and 2008, suggesting a similar downturn.

PND—CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-18

The S&P 500 could experience a 50% decline, similar to past market cycles.

WRG+0.0%CONF 60

Financial markets / global economy[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

The current financial environment, particularly with private credit, could be the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 (GFC 2.0).

PND—CONF 60

Private Credit[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

Private credit is going to be the source of the next big crisis in the financial markets.

PND—CONF 85

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-18

Investors who 'buy the dip' during the current market cycle, which resembles 2008, will face significant losses when the bottom falls out.

PND+0.0%CONF 85

Global Financial System[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

The beginning process of a GFC 2.0 could be playing out now.

PND—CONF 60

Private Credit portfolios[AVOID]

2026-03-18

Portfolios exposed to private credit could experience very significant losses.

PND—CONF 60

^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

The current private credit crisis could be the beginning of a GFC 2.0, which would lead to very significant losses across portfolios and impact jobs and banks.

PND+0.0%CONF 60

^GSPC[AVOID]

2026-03-18

The S&P 500 could decline by 50%, similar to the 2008-2009 period.

PND+0.0%CONF 60

General market, investor portfolios[AVOID]

2026-03-18

Investors who continue to buy the dip during the current market cycle will face significant losses.

PRT—CONF 85

Private credit sector[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-18

The multi-trillion dollar private credit bubble is currently collapsing.

COR—CONF 85

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

The current private credit crisis, despite claims of containment, is the beginning of a GFC 2.0, similar to how the subprime mortgage crisis unfolded.

WRG—CONF 60

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

If JP Morgan were to fail, the entire financial system would collapse.

WRG—CONF 85

financial institutions[AVOID]

2026-03-13

It is only a matter of time before major financial institutions like BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl, already under pressure from the private credit crisis, will experience significantly larger declines in their share prices.

PND—CONF 60

BLK, BX, OWL[AVOID]

2026-03-13

Major financial institutions such as BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl, which have already seen their share prices plummet due to the private credit debacle, will experience further significant declines in their share prices.

PND—CONF 85

JP Morgan, Financial System[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

JP Morgan's struggles with the private credit crisis indicate huge systemic risks, and its failure would lead to the collapse of the entire financial system.

WRG—CONF 85

Financial System / Private Credit[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

The current private credit crisis is the beginning of a GFC 2.0, mirroring the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, and will not be contained.

WRG—CONF 85

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

If JP Morgan goes down, the whole financial system will go down.

PND—CONF 85

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

JP Morgan has revealed huge systemic risks in the financial system.

COR—CONF 85

BlackRock[SELL]

2026-03-13

It's only a matter of time before the share prices of major financial institutions involved in private credit (like BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl) go down 'a heck of a lot more.'

PND—CONF 85

global financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

The current situation with private credit and major banks (JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl) represents the beginning of a GFC 2.0, where private credit will not be contained.

PRT—CONF 85

BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl[AVOID]

2026-03-13

Major financial institutions heavily invested in private credit, such as BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl, will experience significant further declines in their share prices.

PND—CONF 85

JP Morgan, financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

If JP Morgan experiences a severe downturn, the entire financial system will collapse.

PND—CONF 85

Financial system, private credit sector[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

The current private credit crisis could be the beginning of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0, similar to how the subprime crisis evolved.

PND—CONF 85

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

If JP Morgan fails due to systemic risks in the financial system, the entire system will collapse.

PND—CONF 85

financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

We are seeing the beginnings of a GFC 2.0 (Global Financial Crisis 2.0) driven by the private credit crisis, which authorities are incorrectly claiming is 'contained'.

PND—CONF 85

financial stocks[AVOID]

2026-03-13

It is only a matter of time before the share prices of major financial institutions like BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl go down a lot more due to the private credit crisis.

PND—CONF 85

BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl[AVOID]

2026-03-13

The share prices of BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl are destined to go down a heck of a lot more.

PND—CONF 85

Financial system / JP Morgan[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

If JP Morgan fails due to the private credit crisis, the entire financial system will collapse.

PND—CONF 85

Financial system / private credit[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

We could be seeing the beginnings of a GFC 2.0, with the private credit crisis serving as the catalyst, akin to the subprime crisis of 2008.

PND—CONF 60

BlackRock, Blackstone, Blue Owl, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley[AVOID]

2026-03-13

It's just a matter of time before major financial institutions like BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl experience significant further declines in their share prices due to the private credit crisis.

PND—CONF 60

Global Financial System[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

We could be seeing the beginning of a GFC 2.0.

PND—CONF 60

JP Morgan[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

If JP Morgan collapses, the entire financial system will collapse.

PND—CONF 85

JP Morgan, entire financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

If JP Morgan collapses due to its exposure to the private credit crisis, it will trigger the downfall of the entire financial system.

WRG—CONF 85

Financial system, private credit sector[GENERAL_MACRO]

2026-03-13

The current situation with private credit, involving major banks like JP Morgan, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, indicates the potential beginning of a GFC 2.0, with private credit playing the role of the new subprime crisis.

COR—CONF 85

BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone (BX), Blue Owl (OWL)[AVOID]

2026-03-13

The share prices of major asset managers like BlackRock, Blackstone, and Blue Owl will decline significantly further due to their involvement in the private credit crisis.

PND—CONF 85

DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS

CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3

timing issue

n=1

Many dire market crash predictions have not yet materialized within the observable timeframe, leading to a low accuracy score that might change if events unfold over longer periods. A significant number of predictions are future-dated (2026), with outcomes still pending verification.

oversimplification

n=1

Frequent comparisons of current market conditions to the 2008 financial crisis, stating 'exact same thing,' may oversimplify complex market dynamics and overlook crucial differences.

data cherry picking

n=1

The 'is_preliminary' status indicates the current dataset might not be fully representative of the guru's entire prediction history or could evolve significantly as more outcomes are resolved.

CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS

^GSPC168%

financial system2342%

financial markets50%

private credit sector50%

Financial system, private credit sector175%