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Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 0 VERIFIED · 2M
CAT
NARRATIVE
Investing style category
RISK
AGGRESSIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
38
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D
Overall letter grade
47
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D
SIG — · n=0
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=0
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
78
38 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
50
+0.0%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
92
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
100
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
75
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
50
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all38
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS38 PREDICTIONS
Stock market[AVOID]
2026-06-06

The stock market is in the final stages of a melt-up and will eventually experience a significant downturn.

PRT—CONF 85
Stock market[AVOID]
2026-06-06

The current market condition is an exit phase, meaning it is not a good time for investors to enter the market.

PRT—CONF 85
US National Debt interest payments[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-01

The Congressional Budget Office projects annual interest payments on the national debt to reach $2.1 trillion by 2036.

COR—CONF 85
Personal wealth / US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-01

If the current debt situation plays out the same way as it did in the past, the people who understand it early could come out ahead, while everyone else secretly gets screwed.

PND—CONF 60
US National Debt[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-01

The US national debt is projected to reach $50 trillion by 2030.

PND—CONF 85
US National Debt / Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-01

The current national debt situation is a ticking time bomb waiting to happen.

COR—CONF 85
US National Debt / Personal wealth/purchasing power[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-01

The national debt will not disappear but will be transferred, with individuals secretly paying for it.

COR—CONF 85
US National Debt Interest Payments[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-01

US National Debt interest payments are projected to reach $2.1 trillion a year by 2036.

COR—CONF 60
US National Debt[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-01

The United States national debt is on pace to reach $50 trillion by 2030.

COR—CONF 60
Interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-21

Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, could wind up raising interest rates instead of lowering them.

PND—CONF 60
28 MORE
Economy / Financial Markets / Interest Rates / Savings / Investments / Mortgages[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-21

The new Federal Reserve chair's regime change could reset everything from the Fed's balance sheet, market intervention, inflation calculation, and how interest rates affect savings, investments, and mortgages.

PND—CONF 60
Personal money/purchasing power / Inflation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-21

The new Fed chair's decisions will determine whether money keeps working for you or quietly loses more of its value to inflation.

PRT—CONF 85
Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-21

The changes initiated by the new Fed chair are about to affect the very fabric of our economy.

PND—CONF 85
Stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The 'cheap money' system is reversing, causing a major problem for stocks.

PRT—CONF 85
General public sentiment / Market reaction[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

People will panic due to the unfolding economic situation.

PND—CONF 85
TLT[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

Soon, the safest investments in America (Treasury bonds) could become the biggest threat to the entire economy.

PND+2.1%CONF 60
Economy / Investments[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The current bond market situation could mark the beginning of a major economic downturn.

COR—CONF 60
TLT[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-05-18

Investors will choose government bonds yielding over 5% over riskier investments like stocks.

PND+2.1%CONF 60
Bond market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

There will be a crack in the bond market.

PRT—CONF 85
US Government / US Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The US government will be broke.

COR—CONF 85
US federal budget[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The US federal budget is on an unsustainable path.

COR—CONF 85
bond market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The bond market is going to experience a significant crack.

COR—CONF 85
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The US economy/government is going to become broke.

PRT—CONF 85
TLT[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The safest investments in America (bonds) could become the biggest threat to everything else, leading to unthinkable consequences.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
stocks[AVOID]
2026-05-18

Stocks are facing a major problem.

COR—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The 5% bond yield threshold could break the entire US economy.

PRT—CONF 60
everything (economy, investments, jobs, housing)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

This could be the moment that everything starts to go bad (referring to the economy/markets).

PRT—CONF 60
Trump IRA[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-11

The Trump IRA, established by executive order, is set to go into effect in less than 7 months, acting as a replacement or alternative to a 401k and offering a $3,000 investment match for those who qualify.

PRT—CONF 85
middle class income[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

The total income of the middle class is decreasing.

PND—CONF 85
higher income households[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

Higher income households are increasing.

PND—CONF 85
economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

A massive financial shift is currently underway.

PND—CONF 85
middle class[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

The middle class is about to get screwed in 2026.

PND—CONF 85
stock market[BUY]
2026-04-14

The speaker is funneling more of his monthly income into the stock market.

PND—CONF 85
stock market[BUY]
2026-04-14

Any dip in the stock market should be treated as an excuse to buy more.

PND—CONF 85
stock market[BUY]
2026-04-14

When market sentiment is at its worst, that is usually the best time to buy.

PND—CONF 85
stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

The influencer is investing heavier into the stock market throughout 2026.

PND—CONF 85
stock market[BUY]
2026-04-14

Dips in the stock market should be treated as opportunities to buy more.

PND—CONF 85
stock market[BUY]
2026-04-14

The influencer is increasing his investment in the stock market.

COR—CONF 85
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=2
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
The guru's predictions are all dated for 2026, which makes the reported 77.5% accuracy preliminary and not indicative of a long-term track record of fully realized market outcomes.
oversimplification
n=1
Accuracy is based solely on narrative outcomes rather than direct market performance (alpha), which may not fully capture the complexity or investment implications of the predictions.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
stock market1100%
Stock market50%
TLT—
US economy50%
US National Debt1100%