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Heresy Financial

@heresyfinancial · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 3 VERIFIED · 2M
CAT
HYBRID
Investing style category
RISK
SPECULATIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
61
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
B
Overall letter grade
62
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
B
SIG — · n=3
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=3
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
50
61 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
87
+7.5%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
87
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
98
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
100
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all61
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS61 PREDICTIONS
Upcoming mega IPOs (e.g., SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic)[SELL]
2026-06-04

Many retail investors may be left holding a bag from upcoming mega IPOs, such as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, due to changes in rules regarding passive index fund flows.

PND—CONF 35
US Economy / Monetary Policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

Jerome Powell's legacy at the Federal Reserve will likely be seen as a failure to adequately use monetary policy to control inflation.

COR—CONF 60
US Economy / Interest Rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-15

The coming decade will have economic similarities to the 1940s, more so than the 1970s.

PND—CONF 60
index funds[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-05-14

The vast majority of people should only invest in index funds until their investments reach $100,000.

COR—CONF 85
the market[BUY]
2026-05-14

Achieving average market returns is extremely easy by simply investing in the market.

PND—CONF 85
investing journey[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

New investors are highly likely to experience losses early in their investing journey due to an inevitable learning curve.

COR—CONF 85
wealth[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

Following an investment plan of solely using index funds will result in greater and faster wealth accumulation compared to trying to pick stocks and actively trade early on.

COR—CONF 85
SpaceX[SELL]
2026-04-29

The common IPO pattern of initial hype and subsequent crash will probably play out with SpaceX after its IPO, though it might not and could keep going up.

PND—CONF 35
IPOs[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

It is a fairly common pattern for IPOs in general to attract a ton of retail hype, pop, skyrocket, then crash after insiders and early investors sell, as the stock doesn't perform as expected by retail.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-29

Bitcoin is currently in a bear flag pattern, indicating an immediate risk to the downside if it doesn't break out to the upside and establish a new trading range.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
51 MORE
IPOs[BUY]
2026-04-29

Eventually, a good company after IPO will put in a bottom and then start to perform well.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

Bitcoin going to zero is unlikely.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

Bitcoin can go to zero.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
US debt load / US money supply[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The total debt load always has to increase faster than the total money supply growth.

PND—CONF 85
US debt[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The US government will not default on its debt because it needs to borrow as much as it wants in the future.

PND—CONF 85
US debt crisis / US Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

If the government fails to stimulate economic growth with money printing without causing high inflation, it will accelerate the debt crisis into a full-blown catastrophe.

PND—CONF 85
US Economy / Federal Government policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The federal government is about to try and stimulate economic growth and recovery with money printing without simultaneously causing high inflation to deal with the debt crisis.

PND—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

If the federal government fails to stimulate economic growth through money printing without simultaneously causing high inflation, it will accelerate the US debt crisis into a full-blown catastrophe.

PND—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The federal government is about to attempt to stimulate economic growth and recovery with money printing, while trying to avoid causing high inflation.

PND—CONF 60
US economy, inflation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The government will attempt to stimulate economic growth and recovery through money printing without causing high inflation.

PND—CONF 60
US economy, money supply[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The government will attempt to stimulate economic growth through money printing instead of deregulation.

PND—CONF 60
US economy/debt crisis[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The federal government is about to try to deal with the worst debt crisis the country has faced in almost a century.

PND—CONF 60
US economy/debt crisis[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

If the federal government fails to manage the debt crisis, it will accelerate into a full-blown catastrophe.

PND—CONF 85
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

If the federal government fails to stimulate economic growth and recovery with money printing without simultaneously causing high inflation, the debt crisis will accelerate into a full-blown catastrophe.

COR—CONF 60
US sovereign debt[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The US government will not default on its debt.

COR—CONF 85
Global financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Anthropic's Mythos AI model posed a lethal risk to the global financial system due to its ability to find and exploit software vulnerabilities.

PND—CONF 85
global financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Anthropic's Mythos AI model poses a lethal risk to the global financial system due to its ability to find and exploit software vulnerabilities.

COR—CONF 85
Global financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Anthropic's new AI model, Mythos, posed a lethal risk to the global financial system by being too good at finding and exploiting software vulnerabilities.

COR—CONF 85
global financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

The AI model Mythos poses a lethal risk to the global financial system.

COR—CONF 60
USD[AVOID]
2026-04-11

The demise of the dollar will likely unfold in a way that leaves many people vulnerable to loss, especially those paying attention.

WRG+10.1%CONF 60
USD[BUY]
2026-04-11

It is possible to protect oneself and profit from the demise of the dollar.

COR+10.1%CONF 60
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-11

The war with Iran may have just dealt a lethal blow, beginning the end of the US dollar's reign as the global reserve currency.

PND−5.1%CONF 60
General market[AVOID]
2026-04-11

The demise of the dollar's global reserve status will likely unfold differently than most people expect, making many vulnerable to loss.

PND—CONF 60
DX-Y.NYB[BUY]
2026-04-11

It is possible to protect oneself and potentially profit from the demise of the US dollar.

PND−5.1%CONF 60
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-11

The war with Iran may have initiated the end of the US dollar's reign as the global reserve currency.

PND−3.7%CONF 35
DX-Y.NYB[AVOID]
2026-04-11

The demise of the dollar will likely unfold unexpectedly, leaving many people vulnerable to financial loss.

PND−3.7%CONF 60
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-11

The war with Iran may have just dealt a lethal blow, beginning the end of the dollar's reign as the global reserve currency.

PND−1.3%CONF 60
General investment portfolio[AVOID]
2026-04-11

The demise of the dollar will likely unfold in a way that leaves many people vulnerable to loss.

PND—CONF 60
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-11

It is possible to protect oneself and maybe even profit from the demise of the dollar.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-11

The war with Iran may have dealt a lethal blow to the petrodollar system, beginning the end of the dollar's reign as the global reserve currency.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
general market/investors[AVOID]
2026-04-11

The unfolding demise of the dollar will likely be unexpected and leave many people, especially those paying attention, vulnerable to loss.

WRG—CONF 60
US Economy / Economic data[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

A real recession or a real hard period for the economy might not show up in official numbers because they are being artificially manipulated or papered over.

PND—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

Official economic numbers might not accurately reflect a real recession or a hard period for the economy because they are being artificially manipulated or 'papered over' by the Federal Reserve's ability to print money.

PND—CONF 60
US economy, economic data[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

Artificial manipulation of economic numbers might conceal a real recession or a difficult economic period from showing up in official data.

PND—CONF 35
QQQ[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

Massive put buying on QQQ suggests that a significant market event related to a US-Iran deal is expected to happen over the upcoming weekend, which could lead to a decline in QQQ's price.

PRT+2.2%CONF 60
US Economy / Economic data[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

A real recession or hard period for the economy and people might not show up in official economic numbers because they are being artificially manipulated and papered over by the Federal Reserve.

COR—CONF 60
Geopolitical relations[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

A deal between the US and Iran is expected to be closed soon, with good news anticipated from both sides.

COR—CONF 60
QQQ[SELL]
2026-04-08

Massive amounts of money have been loading up on QQQ puts expiring next week, signaling a short-term bearish bet on the Nasdaq 100 ETF.

PND+0.8%CONF 85
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

The S&P 500 (SPY) experienced its lowest trading volume yesterday since February.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
US-Iran relations[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

A deal between the US and Iran is expected to be closed soon, possibly tonight, with good news from both sides.

WRG—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

The economy might be starting to fall off the edge of a cliff towards recession.

PRT—CONF 35
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

The SPY's trading volume yesterday was lower than any day since December.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
US jobs market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

February payroll numbers were revised down by 41,000 jobs, totaling 133,000 jobs lost in one month.

COR—CONF 85
QQQ[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

Massive amounts of money have been used to load up on QQQ puts expiring next week, allegedly to take advantage of something that's going to happen over this weekend.

PND+0.8%CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

The Federal Reserve's ability to print money after abandoning the gold standard has allowed artificial manipulation of economic numbers, potentially masking a real recession.

PRT—CONF 85
US national debt[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-06

If enacted, the proposed budget for 2027 will increase spending, widen the deficit, and accelerate the growth of the national debt.

COR—CONF 85
Money supply[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-06

Government spending financed by borrowing, which is never actually paid back and only covered by future taxing and borrowing, means new money is constantly coming into existence.

PRT—CONF 85
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-06

Every dollar the US government spends, they are taking from citizens either directly through taxation or indirectly through inflation.

PND−4.4%CONF 85
US National Debt / Money Supply[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-06

The US national debt number just keeps on driving higher, which means new money is coming into existence.

COR—CONF 85
US National Debt / US Federal Budget[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-06

The proposed 2.2 trillion budget for 2027, if enacted, will increase spending, widen the deficit, and accelerate the growth of the national debt.

COR—CONF 85
Government Spending / Geopolitics[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-06

The government will always spend more money and start more wars.

COR—CONF 85
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=2
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
The track record is preliminary, with a short timeline (April-May 2026) and only 24 out of 61 predictions scored. This limits the ability to draw definitive conclusions about long-term performance or rolling accuracy.
oversimplification
n=1
A significant portion of predictions are general macroeconomic statements without direct, measurable market outcomes. Assigning binary 'correct/wrong' or alpha scores to such claims can oversimplify their complex nature and may not fully reflect their analytical value.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
DX-Y.NYB—
US economy167%
QQQ50%
BTC-USD—
global financial system2100%