GURUSCOPE
guruscopeguruintothecryptoverse
›creator--idintothecryptoverse
BC

Benjamin Cowen

@intothecryptoverse · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 9 VERIFIED · 7M
CAT
HYBRID
Investing style category
RISK
SPECULATIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
PRELIMINARY
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
63
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D-
Overall letter grade
37
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D-
SIG — · n=9
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=9
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
50
63 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
0
−19.8%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
82
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
100
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
31
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all63
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS63 PREDICTIONS
BTC-USD[HOLD]
2026-05-14

There is a chance that Bitcoin will stall out at its 200-day moving average.

PND+1.5%CONF 35
BTC-USD[HOLD]
2026-05-14

Bitcoin could go above its 200-day moving average, as it has in previous bear markets.

PND+1.5%CONF 35
^GSPC[HOLD]
2026-05-13

The stock market, specifically the S&P 500, generally trends higher over time regardless of which political party is in power.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
Federal Reserve Interest Rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-12

Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts anytime soon are essentially non-existent.

COR—CONF 60
BTC-USD[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-05-12

Altcoins are underperforming Bitcoin, causing Bitcoin dominance to increase.

PND−2.0%CONF 85
Federal Reserve Interest Rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-12

The market now considers a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2027 more likely than a rate cut.

COR—CONF 60
Federal Reserve Interest Rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-12

The market expects no Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and no rate cuts in 2027.

PRT—CONF 60
BTC-USD[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-05-12

Altcoins will continue to bleed against Bitcoin, and Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise.

PND−1.4%CONF 60
Interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-12

Expectations for interest rate cuts anytime soon are essentially non-existent.

COR—CONF 85
Unemployment claims[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-08

Initial unemployment claims will start to rise going into the summer.

COR—CONF 60
53 MORE
Federal Reserve interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

Powell will push back on the idea of short-term rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting.

PND—CONF 60
Monetary policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

Powell will likely push back on looser monetary policy in the short term due to rising inflation from geopolitical conflict.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-27

It is not the influencer's base case that Bitcoin will hold the bare market resistance band as support this time.

PND−0.2%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-27

Bitcoin is historically not typically able to hold the bare market resistance band as support in midterm years.

PND−0.2%CONF 60
Energy stocks[BUY]
2026-04-27

Energy stocks will start doing well again going into the summer.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-26

The current rally by Bitcoin is a countertrend rally, and the bear market is not over.

PND−0.2%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

The market can usually stay somewhat strong for at least a few weeks after the April low in midterm years, following lows in February and April.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

Bitcoin's strength after the April low is unlikely to last until June because the April low was a higher low, unlike historical instances of longer rallies with lower April lows.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

Bitcoin might follow a pattern similar to 2018, with a lower high in late April followed by sweeping that high in early May.

PND+0.3%CONF 35
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

Bitcoin could repeat the 2018 pattern of finding a lower high in late April and then sweeping that high in early May.

PND+1.6%CONF 35
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The S&P 500 could put in a new all-time high.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Bitcoin is in a bear market.

PND+0.4%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin likely topped out at $126,000 in Q4 2025 and entered a bear market that would probably last around a year.

PRT+5.3%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

A realistic view for Bitcoin's bear market would be a drop of approximately 70% (+/- 4-5%) from its highs.

PRT+5.3%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

A 65% drop from Bitcoin's highs would put its price at approximately $42,000.

PRT+5.3%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin entered into a bear market and is likely still in one, even if it does go up a little bit more.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

The Bitcoin market cycle bottom will happen later than May.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

The market cycle bottom of Bitcoin is several months away.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[HOLD]
2026-04-13

After a 50% drop, Bitcoin would likely stall out for a while en route to a larger drop.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin is likely still in a bear market.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin's market cycle bottom could happen as early as May, but this is not the base case.

PND—CONF 35
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

A 65% drop from Bitcoin's highs would put its price at around $42,000.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin would drop approximately 70% plus or minus 4-5% from its highs during this bear market.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

The market cycle bottom for Bitcoin is several months away.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin's market cycle bottom will happen later on, which is my base case.

PND—CONF 60
Federal Reserve policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The Federal Reserve is essentially unable to cut rates in 2026.

COR—CONF 60
Federal Reserve policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The Federal Reserve's inability to cut rates amid a weakening labor market could eventually lead to a 'checkmate' scenario where they cannot cut rates into a weakening economy due to rising energy prices and supply constraints.

COR—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The inability of the Federal Reserve to cut rates in a weakening labor market could eventually lead to a 'checkmate' scenario for the Fed.

PRT—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The US economy is heading towards a 'checkmate' scenario for the Federal Reserve.

WRG—CONF 60
Interest Rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The Federal Reserve is essentially unable to cut rates as the markets were expecting for 2026.

COR—CONF 60
US interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The Fed is essentially unable to cut rates a few times in 2026.

COR—CONF 60
Federal Reserve policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The inability of the Federal Reserve to cut rates in a weakening labor market could eventually lead to the checkmate on the Fed.

PRT—CONF 60
Federal Reserve policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

We are heading towards the Fed being in a checkmate situation.

WRG—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The Fed's checkmate situation will cause a recession.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

The Bitcoin bear market resistance band, currently at $78,000-$79,000, tends to act as resistance, especially near the end of several-month rallies.

PND−4.7%CONF 60
BTC-USD[SELL]
2026-04-08

Bitcoin's bear market resistance band, currently around $78,000 to $79,000, tends to act as resistance, especially near the end of several month rallies.

PND−4.7%CONF 60
BTC-USD[SELL]
2026-04-08

Bitcoin's price will often find the 21-week SMA and 20-week SMA acting as resistance throughout the current bear market.

PND−4.7%CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

A weakening labor market combined with rising inflation due to oil price increases will ultimately lead to the Federal Reserve getting checkmated.

PRT—CONF 85
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

A spiking price of oil in a late business cycle environment starts the beginning of the end of the business cycle.

COR—CONF 85
Unemployment Rate, Inflation Rate[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

The unemployment rate is rising, and the inflation rate is likely going to rise.

COR—CONF 60
Inflation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

Oil price increases in a late business cycle environment will make inflation an issue again.

COR—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

The current environment is a late business cycle, which historically ends with a recession in the United States.

COR—CONF 85
Federal Reserve policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

The Federal Reserve will ultimately get checkmated when a weakening labor market is coupled with rising inflation due to oil.

WRG—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

Oil prices going up in a late business cycle environment is not bullish and will make inflation an issue again.

PRT−17.2%CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

The price of oil spiking in a late business cycle environment starts the beginning of the end of the business cycle.

PRT−17.2%CONF 85
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

We are in the end of a business cycle.

COR—CONF 85
inflation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-07

The inflation rate is likely going to rise.

COR—CONF 60
crypto market[BUY]
2026-03-28

The crypto market will be short-term bullish into May.

COR—CONF 60
crypto market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-03

The crypto market will eventually reach a bottom.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2025-10-01

Bitcoin had likely topped out at $126,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.

PRT−39.9%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2025-10-01

Bitcoin would drop approximately 70% (plus or minus 4-5%) from its highs during the bear market.

PRT−39.9%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2025-10-01

After a 50% drop, Bitcoin would likely stall out for a while before the larger drop.

PRT−39.9%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2025-10-01

Bitcoin was likely entering into a bear market that would probably last around a year, starting in Q4 2025.

PRT−39.9%CONF 60
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=2
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
The 'is_preliminary' flag is true, and only 31 out of 63 predictions have been scored, indicating that many predictions are still pending outcomes, which might not fully reflect long-term performance.
oversimplification
n=1
The low number of market-scored predictions (9) makes the market accuracy and alpha metrics less statistically significant for a comprehensive evaluation.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
BTC-USD50%
US economy3167%
Federal Reserve policy2250%
Federal Reserve Interest Rates283%
CL=F50%