›creator—idinvestanswers—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
I
InvestAnswers
@investanswers · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 26 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
HYBRID
RISK
AGGRES
TIER
EVALUA
PRED
111
GRADE
C
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=26
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=26 · SIG 51.9% · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
85
111 CALLS
α
59
+1.8%
CAL
86
BRIER
SNT
94
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
56
SHARPE
CRD
51
C
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.1
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE99
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/111
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-28^GSPCThe number of employees hired by S&P 500 companies will continue to shrink over time.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.0%—---
04-27BTCMicroStrategy could reach one million Bitcoin holdings by August if they continue their current rate of acquisition.MONTHS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND−0.2%—---
04-27AI sector, Crypto marketThere could be a significant rotation of investments from the AI sector back into the crypto market.UNSPECIFIED35[SECTOR_ROTATION]PND——---
04-27General market / investmentsInvestors should slow down, build cash reserves, and start hedging due to overheated market conditions going into summertime.WEEKS60[HOLD]PND——---
04-26ANETArista Networks (ANET) is a valuable investment due to its strong financials, consistent growth, and profitability.UNSPECIFIED85[BUY]PND−3.7%—---
04-23AIThe singularity, driven by AI, is accelerating faster than anybody predicted.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND−4.5%—---
04-23GrokGrok 6 and 7 are planned to achieve Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI).UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-23GrokGrok 5 is projected to be released by year-end and will be capable of artificial general intelligence (AGI), which the speaker finds concerning.MONTHS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-23GrokGrok 4.5 will be released a few months after 4.4, with around 1.5 trillion parameters or less, optimized for inference.MONTHS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-23GrokGrok 4.4, an LLM with 2 trillion parameters, will be released around early April or early May.WEEKS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
timing issue
n=1
A significant number of predictions (over 70% of total) are still pending verification, which may affect the overall long-term accuracy and alpha once more outcomes are resolved.
survivorship bias
n=1
The reported 0.0 win/loss ratio, despite an 84.6% accuracy rate and identified incorrect/partial outcomes, suggests that losses may not be consistently reported or factored into this specific metric, potentially creating a misleading impression of invincibility.
oversimplification
n=1
Some complex market or technological developments (e.g., AI singularity, Bitcoin scarcity) are presented with highly confident and 'hype-based' emotional tones, which could lead to an oversimplified understanding for the audience.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC388%
BTC-USD—
TSLA1100%
CL=F50%
MSTR4100%