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Investing with Tom

@investingwithtom · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 1 VERIFIED · 2.9Y
CAT
HYBRID
Investing style category
RISK
MODERATE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
18
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
F
Overall letter grade
34
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
F
SIG — · n=1
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=1
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
50
18 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
0
−40.0%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
80
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
100
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
50
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all18
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS18 PREDICTIONS
stock markets[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Stock markets tend to go up over the very long term, providing positive returns for investors compared to other asset classes.

COR—CONF 60
Alibaba[GENERAL_MACRO]
2023-08-18

Alibaba's business is returning to growth following the easing of China's harsh COVID restrictions.

COR—CONF 60
Alibaba[GENERAL_MACRO]
2023-08-18

Alibaba's business is returning to growth.

COR—CONF 60
Alibaba[BUY]
2023-08-18

Alibaba's business is actually returning to growth following the easing of China's harsh COVID restrictions.

PND—CONF 60
Alibaba[GENERAL_MACRO]
2023-08-18

Alibaba's business is returning to growth after harsh COVID restrictions.

PND—CONF 60
Alibaba[BUY]
2023-08-18

The business of Alibaba is returning to growth now that China has largely moved past its harsh COVID restrictions.

PND—CONF 60
HAFS[AVOID]
2023-08-04

Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS) faces a significant interest rate risk in the short to medium term due to its liability-sensitive balance sheet.

PND—CONF 60
HAFS[AVOID]
2023-08-04

Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS) will continue to face significant interest rate risk in the short and medium term due to its liability-sensitive balance sheet and the lag in adjusting asset yields.

PND—CONF 60
Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS)[AVOID]
2023-08-04

Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS) faces a pretty big risk in the short and medium term due to interest rate sensitivity and the lag in passing higher rates to the asset side.

PND—CONF 60
Hingham Institution for Savings[AVOID]
2023-08-04

Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS) faces a significant interest rate risk in the short and even medium term.

PND—CONF 60
8 MORE
Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS)[AVOID]
2023-08-04

Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS) faces significant interest rate risk in the short and medium term.

PND—CONF 60
Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2023-08-04

In the long term, Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS)'s interest rate risk will not be significant, assuming the yield curve normalizes and interest rates remain relatively stable.

PND—CONF 60
Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS)[AVOID]
2023-08-04

Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS) faces a significant interest rate risk in the short and medium term due to its liability-sensitive balance sheet.

PND—CONF 60
Hingham Institution for Savings[AVOID]
2023-08-04

Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS) faces significant risk in the short and medium term due to its liability-sensitive balance sheet, as rising interest rates cause funding costs to increase faster than asset yields.

PND—CONF 60
Hingham Institution for Savings[AVOID]
2023-08-04

Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS) faces significant interest rate risk in the short and medium term due to its liability-sensitive balance sheet and the timing mismatch of interest rate changes impacting funding costs versus asset yields.

PND—CONF 60
Hingham Institution for Savings[GENERAL_MACRO]
2023-08-04

Interest rate risk poses a significant threat to Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS) in the short and medium term, requiring close monitoring.

COR—CONF 60
Hingham Institution for Savings[GENERAL_MACRO]
2023-08-04

In the long term, if the yield curve normalizes and interest rates are relatively stable, the specific level of interest rates (whether higher or lower) will not significantly impact Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS).

COR—CONF 60
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2023-06-26

The long-term outlook for the price of crude oil is positive due to steadily increasing demand and relatively flat supply.

PRT−40.0%CONF 60
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
data cherry picking
n=1
The guru's performance metrics are based on a very small sample of 6 scored predictions out of 18 total, making them highly susceptible to statistical noise and not representative of long-term performance.
oversimplification
n=1
His high narrative accuracy (100%) is partly based on broad, long-term statements (e.g., 'stock markets tend to go up over the very long term') which are generally true but may lack actionable specificity for short-to-medium term investing.
market conditions
n=1
The market-scored call for crude oil (CL=F) was made during a period of market volatility, which could have influenced its -40.05% alpha.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
Alibaba2100%
Hingham Institution for Savings2100%
HAFS—
Hingham Institution for Savings (HAFS)—
Hingham Institution for Savings (HIFS)—