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Ivan on Tech
@ivanontech · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 21 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
HYBRID
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
EVALUA
PRED
65
GRADE
D
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=21
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=21 · SIG 94.0% · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
71
65 CALLS
α
28
−4.5%
CAL
82
BRIER
SNT
95
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
44
SHARPE
CRD
43
D
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE65
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/65
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-21BTC-USDThe crypto market (specifically Bitcoin) is currently heavily in a bear market.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.0%—---
04-21BTC-USDBitcoin needs to reach $91,000 for the market to flip bullish based on the money line indicator.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.0%—---
04-21BTC-USDBitcoin's price can still go significantly lower.UNSPECIFIED60[AVOID]PND+0.0%—---
04-17BTC-USDThe likelihood of Bitcoin's price at 60K being the market bottom is quite low.UNSPECIFIED60[AVOID]PND−0.0%—---
04-17BTC-USDThe likelihood of Bitcoin being at its bottom at 60K is quite low.UNSPECIFIED60[AVOID]PND+1.4%—---
04-17BTC-USDBitcoin is currently in a bear trend.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.0%—---
04-17BTC-USDThe likelihood of Bitcoin having reached its market bottom at 60K, based on the current chart, is quite low.UNSPECIFIED60[AVOID]PND+0.0%—---
04-15BTC-USDBulls who are excited by current rallies will be trapped and suffer losses.WEEKS85[AVOID]PND+0.2%—---
04-15BTC-USDSailor (MicroStrategy CEO) will likely cause Bitcoin price pumps around the 15th of each month going forward.MONTHS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.2%—---
04-15BTC-USDThere will be a good time later this year to be bullish on Bitcoin.MONTHS85[BUY]PND+0.2%—---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=2
timing issue
n=1
The negative average alpha (-4.49%) despite high accuracy suggests that even directionally correct calls may have suffered from suboptimal entry/exit timing, causing underperformance relative to the benchmark.
oversimplification
n=1
Some predictions feature 'hype-based' or 'fear-based' emotional tones, which can lead to oversimplified market analysis or potentially influence audience decisions based on emotion rather than comprehensive data.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC-USD365%
BTC7100%
CL=F50%
stocks125%
GSG—