GURUSCOPE
guruscopeguruivanontech
›creator--idivanontech
IO

Ivan on Tech

@ivanontech · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 12 VERIFIED · 2M
CAT
HYBRID
Investing style category
RISK
SPECULATIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
PRELIMINARY
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
83
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D
Overall letter grade
46
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D
SIG — · n=12
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=12
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
62
83 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
60
+2.0%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
77
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
95
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
83
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all83
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS83 PREDICTIONS
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-04

We expect Bitcoin to go lower.

PND−1.6%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-04

Bitcoin has a possibility to go lower within the buy zone, potentially reaching $40,000 or $30,000.

PND−1.6%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-04

Buying Bitcoin at the current price, around the 200-week moving average, is a very good price for the long term.

PND−1.6%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-04

Bitcoin has a very big chance to go lower.

PND−1.5%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-05-19

The 200-week moving average for Bitcoin represents a strong buying opportunity, defined as the 'buy zone.'

PND+0.4%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-19

The current 200-day moving average rejection for Bitcoin is the initial step towards a capitulation event, which would offer the best risk-reward for buying.

PND+0.4%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-05-19

It is currently too early for a new Bitcoin bull market, and bullish sentiment needs to be capitulated.

PND+0.4%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-19

The rejection of Bitcoin by the 200-day moving average signals the commencement of the final stage of the bear market.

PND+0.4%CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-05-19

Bitcoin's rejection by the 200-day moving average in a bear market indicates a significant price drop.

PND+0.4%CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-05-19

The current rejection by the 200-day moving average marks the beginning of a massive and prolonged descent to market lows for Bitcoin.

PND+0.4%CONF 85
73 MORE
BTC-USD[HOLD]
2026-05-19

The current bearish stance on Bitcoin will only change if it reaches the 'buy zone' (200-week moving average) or enters a clear bull trend above the 'money line.'

PND+0.4%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-19

Bitcoin has been in a bearish trend since October 8th of the previous year (2025).

PND+0.4%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-19

Bitcoin is anticipated to recover significantly later in the current year (2026) and especially into 2027.

PND+0.4%CONF 60
stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

If an AI bubble pops and stocks fall significantly, there will be clear bearish signals on weekly or daily charts before they reach zero.

PND—CONF 85
^GSPC[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-05-14

The broader tech sector is underperforming, with only a few specific AI-related companies driving the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

Oil prices will remain very high, contributing to significant inflationary pressure.

PND−0.6%CONF 85
interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut is basically zero.

PRT—CONF 85
interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates and may hike them this year due to soaring inflation.

COR—CONF 60
NASDAQ[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

NASDAQ is at an all-time high and has momentum to go even higher.

PND—CONF 60
TLT[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The Federal Reserve could absolutely control the long end of the yield curve if they print money and start buying government bonds in the open market.

PND−0.6%CONF 85
TLT[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The Federal Reserve may need to start buying government bonds because the open market is demanding very high yields from the US government.

PND−0.6%CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The Federal Reserve is expected to intervene and provide support due to the US bond market crisis.

WRG—CONF 60
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The stock market trend is bullish, with S&P and NASDAQ reaching new all-time highs.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[SELL]
2026-05-13

Bitcoin's current price action is repeating the 2022 bear market pattern, implying a significant price drop of approximately 70% after the current pump.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-05-12

Bitcoin is currently in a bear trend on the weekly chart and its price is going lower, indicating significant risk to the downside.

PND−1.4%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-05-12

A "nice big fat bull market" for Bitcoin and altcoins is going to come, either now or later this year.

PND−1.4%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-21

Bitcoin's price can still go significantly lower.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-21

Bitcoin needs to reach $91,000 for the market to flip bullish based on the money line indicator.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-21

The crypto market (specifically Bitcoin) is currently heavily in a bear market.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-17

The likelihood of Bitcoin's price at 60K being the market bottom is quite low.

PND−0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-17

The likelihood of Bitcoin being at its bottom at 60K is quite low.

PND+1.4%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

Bitcoin is currently in a bear trend.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-17

The likelihood of Bitcoin having reached its market bottom at 60K, based on the current chart, is quite low.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

Bulls who are excited by current rallies will be trapped and suffer losses.

PND+0.2%CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

The Bitcoin price at 60K was not the market bottom.

PND+0.2%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

It is too early to be excited or bullish on Bitcoin right now.

PND+0.2%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-15

There will be a good time later this year to be bullish on Bitcoin.

PND+0.2%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Sailor (MicroStrategy CEO) will likely cause Bitcoin price pumps around the 15th of each month going forward.

PND+0.2%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

The bottom for Bitcoin is not yet in.

PND+1.7%CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

Bulls are currently entering into a trap and will be liquidated.

PND+1.7%CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

Bitcoin has not yet experienced the 'big flash', a significant capitulation event.

PND+1.7%CONF 60
BTC-USD[HOLD]
2026-04-15

It is currently too early to be excited as a bull, but there will be a time later this year to be bullish.

PND+1.7%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Michael Saylor is likely to pump Bitcoin around the 15th of each month, including next month (May 2026).

PND+1.7%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

Bitcoin's price of 60K was not the market bottom.

PND+0.3%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

Bitcoin has not yet experienced a significant flash crash.

PND+0.3%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

Bulls who are excited and buying now are entering into a trap.

PND+0.3%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The 15th of each month will be an important date for Bitcoin's price movements going forward.

PND+0.3%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Sailor (MicroStrategy) will likely cause Bitcoin to experience a price pump next month.

PND+0.3%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

The bottom for Bitcoin has not been reached.

PND+0.3%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

A good time to be a bullish investor will come later this year.

PND+0.3%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

The recent 26% Bitcoin pump is a typical bear market rally, consistent with historical patterns of significant bounces during bear trends.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Michael Saylor will likely pump Bitcoin next month around the 15th, making the 15th of each month an important date for Bitcoin's price movements going forward.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

60K was not the bottom for Bitcoin, and recent bounces are insignificant in the larger trend.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-04-15

The bottom for Bitcoin is not yet in, the current bullish excitement is a trap, and a true bull market is still far off, likely later this year.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

From our perspective, commodities and oil prices have to come down.

PRT−9.8%CONF 85
BTC-USD[HOLD]
2026-04-14

Bitcoin going above 74K would be bullish, but not enough to signal the end of the bear market or the 'buy zone'.

PND−1.6%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-14

Bitcoin has a valid nice signal up to 86K, but this rise will still occur within the overall bear trend.

PND−1.6%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-14

Short-term trading for Bitcoin to the 86K level is the next step.

PND−1.6%CONF 60
Altcoins[AVOID]
2026-04-14

Many altcoins are showing short-term bullish trends, but these are still just short-term within an overall bear market.

PND—CONF 60
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

GSG is still in a bull trend, and commodities like oil are expensive.

PRT−9.8%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

Bitcoin is still in a big fat bear trend, despite any short-term pumps, and it's not time to say goodbye to the buy zone.

PND−1.6%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-14

If Bitcoin is able to break its big fat resistance this week, it has a fantastic invitation to rise 16% to a new level.

PND−1.6%CONF 60
GSG[SELL]
2026-04-14

Commodity prices, including GSG and oil, have to decrease.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

Bitcoin moving above 74K would be a positive signal, but it would not be enough to signify the end of the 'buy zone' (bear market accumulation phase).

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-14

Speculation for Bitcoin to reach the 86K level is highly valid.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-14

Short-term trading for Bitcoin to the 86K level is the next valid step given the current chart setup.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
GSG[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

GSG is currently in a bull trend, and commodities, including oil around $100, remain expensive.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

Bitcoin is currently still in a significant bear trend.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-14

If Bitcoin breaks above its current resistance of 74K this week, it could see a 16% increase, reaching approximately 86K.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[HOLD]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin may experience another pump and dump cycle and remain within its current range for a few more weeks, influenced by political news.

PRT+3.7%CONF 35
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin's rejection by the 74K level, which is the last year's low, is not a sign of strength.

PRT+3.7%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-13

If Bitcoin breaks to the upside, there will be a 16% long opportunity to the next resistance at approximately 86K, which will likely be a lower high.

COR+3.7%CONF 60
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Stocks and crypto do not necessarily move hand-in-hand, and crypto portfolios can be destroyed even when stocks are moving up.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Stocks could go into a bull trend this week, which would bring some bullishness to Bitcoin.

PRT+3.7%CONF 35
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

The path of least resistance for Bitcoin is still downwards because both Bitcoin and stocks are still in a bear trend.

PRT+3.7%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-13

If Bitcoin breaks down from its current range, it will experience a big flash into the buy zone towards or below the 200E moving average.

COR+3.7%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin's rejection at the 74K level, which is the last year low, is not a sign of strength.

PRT+5.3%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Bitcoin may experience another pump and dump cycle and remain within its current range for a few more weeks.

PRT+5.3%CONF 35
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

The path of least resistance for Bitcoin is still downwards.

PRT+5.3%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-13

If Bitcoin breaks to the upside, there is a good long opportunity to the next resistance level of approximately 86K, representing a 16% gain.

COR+5.3%CONF 60
stocks[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Stocks are currently still in a bear trend.

WRG—CONF 85
stocks[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Stocks could transition into a bull trend this week, which would subsequently bring some bullishness to Bitcoin.

PRT—CONF 60
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

The S&P 500 has gone up since October, while altcoins have declined by 80-90% during the same period.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=1
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
The track record is currently preliminary, with a significant number of predictions (83 total, 17 scored) yet to resolve, limiting a comprehensive long-term assessment.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
BTC-USD365%
^GSPC—
CL=F50%
interest rates175%
stocks125%