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JB

Jake Broe

@jakebroe · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 4 VERIFIED · 1.7Y
CAT
NARRATIVE
Investing style category
RISK
SPECULATIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
35
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D-
Overall letter grade
36
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D-
SIG — · n=4
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=4
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
62
35 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
43
−1.4%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
86
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
100
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
48
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all35
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS35 PREDICTIONS
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The Tuapse oil refinery facility will not make a comeback.

PND—CONF 85
Russian government[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The Russian government will not allocate the necessary funds to properly clean up the oil spill in Tuapse.

COR—CONF 60
Novokuybyshevsk chemical plant[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Ukraine is capable of striking the Novokuybyshevsk chemical plant again if it is repaired or remains operational.

COR—CONF 60
Tuapse refinery[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The Tuapse refinery will not be fully operational again for an extended period, likely years.

COR—CONF 60
Yaroslavl oil refinery[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Ukraine is capable of striking the Yaroslavl oil refinery again.

COR—CONF 60
Tuapse oil terminal[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Ukraine is capable of striking the Tuapse oil terminal again.

COR—CONF 60
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Russia will be unable to extinguish the fire at the Tuapse refinery.

PND—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

If Ukraine can knock out the Perm pumping station node, Russia's entire oil pipeline infrastructure will be crippled.

PND—CONF 85
Russia[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-09

Based on historical precedents, Russia is the most likely country in the world to experience some kind of political revolution or economic collapse.

PND—CONF 60
Russia (economy/political system)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-09

Russia is the most likely country in the world to experience a catastrophic economic or political collapse, which will trigger a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine's territory.

WRG—CONF 60
25 MORE
Oil storage tanks (Feodosia terminal)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

Ukraine might blow up the remaining intact storage tanks at the oil terminal in Feodosia tomorrow night.

PND—CONF 35
Russia (economy/political stability)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

The economic and political situation in Russia will continue to deteriorate, though it may take some more time.

COR—CONF 60
Russia (economy)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

Russia's economy will continue to deteriorate every night due to ongoing long-range strikes from Ukraine.

PRT—CONF 85
Russian economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

Russia's economy will continue to worsen due to Ukrainian long-range strikes.

PND—CONF 85
Russia's economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

Russia's economy will continue to worsen every night due to Ukrainian long-range strikes.

PND—CONF 60
Russian oil/fuel infrastructure[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

Ukrainian Firepoint drones will eventually find and hit any Russian oil or fuel storage facility.

PND—CONF 60
Ukraine (financial aid)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

The 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine will be unlocked.

PND—CONF 85
EU loan for Ukraine[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-12

If Fico and Slovakia try to block the EU loan, Slovakia's voting rights can be temporarily suspended to pass it.

PND—CONF 60
Slovakia (EU voting rights, sanctions packages)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-12

Slovakia's voting rights could be suspended if it tries to block the EU financial loan or sanctions packages.

PND—CONF 60
Ukraine (financial aid)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-12

Victor Orban will be gone in four weeks, allowing the 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine to pass.

PND—CONF 85
EU financial loan for Ukraine / EU sanctions packages[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-12

If Slovakia, under Fico, attempts to block the EU financial loan or sanctions packages, the EU can temporarily suspend Slovakia's voting rights to ensure passage.

PND—CONF 60
90 billion euro loan for Ukraine[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-12

The departure of Victor Orban as Prime Minister of Hungary will lead to the unblocking of the 90 billion euro loan provided by the EU to Ukraine.

PND—CONF 85
EU loan to Ukraine[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-12

If Fico and Slovakia attempt to block the EU loan, Slovakia's voting rights can be temporarily suspended to ensure its passage.

WRG—CONF 60
EU loan to Ukraine[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-12

Victor Orban, who has been blocking the 90 billion euro EU loan and sanctions packages, will be gone in four weeks.

PRT—CONF 85
Russian oil and gas infrastructure[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

Ukraine will continue to destroy Russia's oil and gas storage facilities, such as the terminal in Fodosia, because Russia lacks alternative storage options.

PND—CONF 85
Russian military capabilities[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The situation for the Russian military on the front lines will continue to deteriorate every night due to Ukrainian missile and drone production and attacks.

PND—CONF 85
Russian oil and gas infrastructure[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

Russia will continue to use the Fodosia oil terminal due to a lack of alternatives, and Ukraine will continue to attack and destroy it.

COR—CONF 85
Russian military logistics[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-10

The situation on the front lines for Ukraine is at its best, with Ukraine holding the advantage due to its missile and drone production, which is devastating Russian logistics, and conditions for the Russian military will continue to worsen every night.

PRT—CONF 85
Russian oil infrastructure (Fodosia terminal)[AVOID]
2026-04-10

Ukraine will continue blowing up the Fodosia oil terminal.

COR—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

Ukraine's focus is now on targeting Russian oil export terminals, specifically the two in the Baltic Sea (Perk Scanus Luga) and to finish off the Black Sea oil export terminal, driven by oil prices being over $100 a barrel.

PRT−25.3%CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

The Nova Assis oil terminal will be offline for a while due to extensive damage from a Ukrainian drone attack.

PRT−25.3%CONF 60
Russian oil export infrastructure (Nova Assis terminal)[AVOID]
2026-04-08

The Nova Assis oil terminal might have been finished off by Ukrainian drone attacks.

COR—CONF 60
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-08

Because the price of oil is over $100 a barrel, Ukraine's focus is now to knock off Russian oil terminals in the Baltic Sea (Perk Scanus Luga) and finish off the oil export terminal in the Black Sea.

PRT−16.4%CONF 85
Russian oil export infrastructure (Nova Assis terminal)[AVOID]
2026-04-08

The Nova Assis oil terminal is going to be offline for a while.

COR—CONF 85
GC=F[BUY]
2024-10-15

Gold will be a favorable investment in 2025.

COR+61.4%CONF 60
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=2
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
Several predictions have 'partial' outcomes, suggesting that the timing or full extent of the predicted geopolitical events did not perfectly align with the evaluation period or stated time horizons.
oversimplification
n=1
Some predictions involving broad geopolitical outcomes (e.g., political collapse of Russia, swift resolution of EU loans) might oversimplify highly complex and multi-faceted situations.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
CL=F50%
EU loan to Ukraine125%
Russian oil export infrastructure (Nova Assis terminal)2100%
Russian oil and gas infrastructure1100%
Ukraine (financial aid)—