›creator—idjakebroe—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
JB
Jake Broe
@jakebroe · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 15 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
NARRAT
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
PRELIM
PRED
28
GRADE
D-
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=15
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=15 · SIG 57.3% · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
77
28 CALLS
α
7
−8.5%
CAL
92
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
44
SHARPE
CRD
36
D-
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE28
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/28
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-20Oil storage tanks (Feodosia terminal)Ukraine might blow up the remaining intact storage tanks at the oil terminal in Feodosia tomorrow night.INTRADAY35[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-17Russian economyRussia's economy will continue to worsen due to Ukrainian long-range strikes.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-17Russia's economyRussia's economy will continue to worsen every night due to Ukrainian long-range strikes.MONTHS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-17Russian oil/fuel infrastructureUkrainian Firepoint drones will eventually find and hit any Russian oil or fuel storage facility.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-14Ukraine (financial aid)The 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine will be unlocked.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-12EU loan for UkraineIf Fico and Slovakia try to block the EU loan, Slovakia's voting rights can be temporarily suspended to pass it.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-12Slovakia (EU voting rights, sanctions packages)Slovakia's voting rights could be suspended if it tries to block the EU financial loan or sanctions packages.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-12Ukraine (financial aid)Victor Orban will be gone in four weeks, allowing the 90 billion euro loan for Ukraine to pass.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-12EU financial loan for Ukraine / EU sanctions packagesIf Slovakia, under Fico, attempts to block the EU financial loan or sanctions packages, the EU can temporarily suspend Slovakia's voting rights to ensure passage.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-1290 billion euro loan for UkraineThe departure of Victor Orban as Prime Minister of Hungary will lead to the unblocking of the 90 billion euro loan provided by the EU to Ukraine.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=2
timing issue
n=1
Many predictions are recent or forward-dated, and the overall dataset is preliminary (15 scored predictions), which limits the long-term reliability and depth of analysis.
oversimplification
n=1
While reported accuracy is high, the average alpha is significantly negative, suggesting that 'correct' outcomes may not translate to superior returns. For example, some price targets marked 'correct' show considerable negative alpha, implying the target was not met or the asset underperformed its benchmark despite moving in the predicted direction.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC4100%
CL=F50%
EU loan to Ukraine125%
Russian oil export infrastructure (Nova Assis terminal)2100%
Russian oil and gas infrastructure1100%