›creator—idjosephcarlson—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
J
Josephcarlson
@josephcarlson · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 3 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
HYBRID
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
INSUFF
PRED
3
GRADE
D-
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=3
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=3 · SIG — · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
100
3 CALLS
α
0
−16.2%
CAL
98
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
42
SHARPE
CRD
37
D-
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE3
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/3
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
11-01BTCBitcoin (BTC) is breaking out and will reach a target of $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−15.8%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin is breaking out.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND−16.2%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin will reach $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND−16.2%—---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
timing issue
n=1
The current 100% accuracy is based on only 3 predictions, all from the same date, making it a preliminary and statistically unreliable indicator of long-term performance.
benchmark flattery
n=1
Despite all predictions being 'correct' directionally, the asset's returns significantly underperformed the benchmark, resulting in a negative average alpha. This indicates missed opportunity costs even on successful directional calls.
oversimplification
n=1
The small number of predictions makes it difficult to draw robust conclusions about the guru's overall skill or consistent strategy.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC1100%