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Meet Kevin

@meetkevin · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 23 VERIFIED · 2M
CAT
HYBRID
Investing style category
RISK
AGGRESSIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
EVALUABLE
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
264
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
C+
Overall letter grade
56
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
C+
SIG — · n=23
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=23
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
54
264 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
51
+0.2%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
80
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
98
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
70
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
51
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all100
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS100 PREDICTIONS
Federal Reserve / Interest Rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

By June 2027, market pricing indicates no Federal Reserve rate cuts, only rate hikes.

COR—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

If crude oil falls under $90 by Tuesday morning, a specific call option holder is projected to profit $129 million.

PND+6.3%CONF 85
ENPH[HOLD]
2026-06-10

Enphase, due to its small market cap, is prone to high volatility and could move heavily and rapidly to the downside.

PRT−3.9%CONF 60
Federal Reserve / Interest Rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

By the end of 2026, there is over a 57.9% chance of Federal Reserve rate hikes, with a 14% chance of two rate hikes.

PRT—CONF 85
OpenAI[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

OpenAI might confidentially file to go public as soon as Friday.

COR—CONF 35
US-Iran peace deal[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

Ongoing strikes indicate that the US-Iran deal might not be as close as previously thought.

COR—CONF 35
software sector[AVOID]
2026-06-10

The software sector has not yet reached a bottom and still has work to do.

PND—CONF 60
NVDA[BUY]
2026-06-10

Nvidia has an upside of about 93%.

PND−2.1%CONF 85
hardware sector[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-10

Other sectors offer better opportunities than hardware right now.

PND—CONF 60
Economy/consumers[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

Consumer spending power, boosted by tax returns and stimulus, will be depleted by July, leading to economic difficulties due to high fuel costs.

COR—CONF 60
90 MORE
AI sector/cycle[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-10

If the IPOs of companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic do not perform well, it could slow down the entire artificial intelligence cycle.

PND—CONF 60
SNDK[AVOID]
2026-06-10

SanDisk is heavily overvalued.

PND+1.4%CONF 60
ENPH[BUY]
2026-06-10

Enphase is a solid short-term trade and will likely be good for the rest of the year.

WRG−3.9%CONF 60
SpaceX IPO, OpenAI IPO[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

The SpaceX IPO will happen in September, and the OpenAI IPO could happen as early as September, potentially stretching into October.

PRT—CONF 60
SpaceX[BUY]
2026-06-10

There will be the best opportunity for a momentum-based rally on SpaceX pretty close to its IPO.

PND—CONF 85
SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

The upcoming IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are going to suck up a lot of money and could set up a massive concentration for the market that ends up being really bad.

PND—CONF 60
software sector[AVOID]
2026-06-10

The software sector is currently underweight and being cut.

PND—CONF 85
IPO Market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

The upcoming IPOs of SpaceX (in June), OpenAI (in September), and Anthropic (later this year) are expected to raise two to four times the entire IPO market of 2025.

PND—CONF 60
semiconductor sector[BUY]
2026-06-10

The enthusiasm in the market is currently in semiconductors.

PND—CONF 85
MSFT[BUY]
2026-06-10

Microsoft will be able to reduce data center spending and continue generating significant revenue from services.

PND+0.1%CONF 60
ENPH[BUY]
2026-06-10

Enphase (ENPH) is shooting straight up towards breaking through the $75-$80 line.

WRG−3.9%CONF 60
Federal Reserve / Interest Rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

There is currently no market forecast for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

WRG—CONF 85
Market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

A report from Iran's TASM news agency citing progress on some issues leans bullish for the market, indicating a deal is more likely.

COR—CONF 60
NVDA[BUY]
2026-06-10

Nvidia is currently dirt cheap based on its PEG ratio of 1.38.

PND−2.1%CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

Oil prices have the potential to spike back up.

PND+6.1%CONF 60
Hardware stocks (sector)[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-10

The rally in hardware stocks still has room to expand.

PND—CONF 60
US equities[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

Today is potentially the start of a reversal for the market rally.

COR—CONF 35
Cerebrus[AVOID]
2026-06-10

Cerebrus's future earnings are expected to start turning negative, transitioning from appearing profitable to losing money.

PND—CONF 85
Donald Trump's political standing/midterms[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

Elevated 10-year Treasury yields and high oil prices will cause more political pain for Donald Trump going into the midterms.

COR—CONF 85
Stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

The stock market is very likely to rally if an incremental deal is reached with Iran, similar to historical reactions to other tentative deals.

COR—CONF 85
US-Iran deal[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

JP Morgan believes a US-Iran deal could be reached as early as this long weekend.

WRG—CONF 85
CL=F[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-10

JP Morgan is recommending investors sell oil and buy oil-sensitive assets like airlines in anticipation of a deal.

PND+6.2%CONF 60
MRVL[BUY]
2026-06-10

Marvell is a favored stock for investment due to its strong performance in the hardware race.

WRG−3.7%CONF 85
interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-10

Kevin Warsh will use low oil prices as ammunition to try to anchor down interest rates.

PRT—CONF 60
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-09

If the hardware rally loses steam and a software or other sector rally hasn't begun yet, then the S&P 500 or Nasdaq 100 will not maintain all-time highs.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-09

SpaceX will have its IPO this week.

COR—CONF 60
interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-08

A rate hike by the end of the year is not going to happen.

PRT—CONF 85
stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-08

Keeping rates down will create an upside potential catalyst for the stock market.

PND—CONF 60
interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-08

Kevin Warsh will be an anchor at keeping interest rates down.

PRT—CONF 60
software stocks[AVOID]
2026-06-06

The bottom for software stocks has not yet occurred, indicating further downside.

WRG—CONF 60
Interest rates (Fed policy)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Kevin Warsh will act as an anchor to interest rates, preventing rate hikes, with the Fed simply maintaining current levels.

WRG—CONF 60
Market expectations for Fed rate hikes[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

If Kevin Warsh remains patient and inflation rolls over in the second half of the year (2026), then market expectations for rate hikes will decrease.

PRT—CONF 60
SpaceX IPO[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-04

Elon Musk will likely delay the SpaceX IPO to a Friday to optimize for an initial price pop, as this strategy is common for new listings.

COR—CONF 60
NVDA, hardware sector[AVOID]
2026-06-04

Nvidia's revenue growth will eventually decline, leading to an absolute collapse of the entire hardware sector.

PND—CONF 85
OpenAI (stock, if public)[SELL]
2026-06-04

If OpenAI were a public company, the influencer would short its stock due to concerns about its CFO's assessment of market liquidity.

PND—CONF 85
MRVL[BUY]
2026-06-04

Marvell Technology (MRVL) is potentially becoming eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500 index.

WRG−12.5%CONF 60
US Stock Market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-03

The US stock market is on the verge of making even more all-time highs due to a strong economy.

COR—CONF 60
economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-03

The economy is on the verge of making even more all-time highs.

PND—CONF 60
MRVL[BUY]
2026-06-03

Marvell Technologies (MRVL) is a stock that has been bought and has seen incredible gains, described as a rocket ship.

PND+4.5%CONF 85
MRVL[BUY]
2026-06-02

Marvell Technology has the potential for significant vertical growth similar to SanDisk's past performance.

COR+19.5%CONF 60
Hardware sector[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-02

The hardware sector will be very rewarding over the next 6 months.

PND—CONF 60
MRVL[BUY]
2026-06-02

Marvell Technologies (MRVL) is a valuable stock that has significantly risen, validating past positive views.

COR+38.1%CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-01

Iran will completely block the Strait of Hormuz and potentially activate other fronts, including the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which would block the flow of oil out of the Red Sea.

PND+4.4%CONF 60
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-01

Iran's agenda to block the Strait of Hormuz and potentially activate other fronts like the Bob Eland strait will block the flow of oil out of the Middle East.

PND+4.8%CONF 85
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

In a bear case scenario, the S&P 500 could decline 19% to 5,900 over the next 12 months.

PND+0.0%CONF 35
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

In a bull case scenario, the S&P 500 could reach 9,400 over the next 12 months, representing a 28% upside.

PND+0.0%CONF 35
NVDA[BUY]
2026-05-18

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is likely to increase the company's Q2 and full-year forecasts during Wednesday's earnings call, driven by an anticipated large order from SpaceX following its IPO.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
NVDA[BUY]
2026-05-18

Nvidia is likely to report significant revenue growth with controlled costs in its upcoming earnings report.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The SpaceX IPO, scheduled for June 12th, will raise $80 to $100 billion for Elon Musk.

PND—CONF 85
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-18

The S&P 500 will reach 8,300 over the next 12 months, representing a 13.3% upside, according to Morgan Stanley's base case, which could be supported by events like the SpaceX IPO.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Software sector[BUY]
2026-05-17

The software sector is due for a rally, following a recent hardware rally.

PND—CONF 60
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-17

A strong US dollar can negatively impact the earnings of US companies with international sales, potentially causing them to miss earnings estimates due to foreign exchange effects.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Technology sector[AVOID]
2026-05-17

Signs of tech fatigue are emerging, with sentiment indicators flashing red and overbought conditions, potentially leading to a painful rotation out of the sector.

PND—CONF 60
SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The deal between Google and SpaceX will add to the IPO pump for SpaceX, making it the most insane pump ever.

PND—CONF 85
TSLA[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

SpaceX will become so rich that it will buy Tesla.

PND−1.2%CONF 60
MRVL[BUY]
2026-05-13

Marvell Technologies (MRVL) offers great long-term opportunities in AI infrastructure (fiber buildout, base stations, on-device AI) and 5G/6G architecture, making it a valuable infrastructure stock and call option play at a fair valuation.

COR+9.6%CONF 85
QQQ[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-13

If Nvidia broke through 227 (which it did), the NASDAQ 100 would be able to get back to 715 today.

PND+0.4%CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-13

Oil prices will eventually stabilize or decrease because either a workaround for the Strait of Hormuz will be found or the situation there will resolve, leading to a macro super cycle.

PND−2.3%CONF 60
NVDA[BUY]
2026-05-13

Nvidia's price target is $320.

COR+5.4%CONF 60
Federal Reserve leadership[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-13

Jerome Powell will cease being chairperson of the Federal Reserve in 2 days, on Friday.

COR—CONF 85
Yields[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-13

Yields are starting to break out, which is a negative market indicator.

COR—CONF 60
CBRS[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-13

The Cerebrous IPO is set to be pretty big.

PND−1.4%CONF 60
^TNX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-12

The 10-year Treasury yield will respect its ceiling and not break above 4.57%.

PND+1.4%CONF 60
NASDAQ[AVOID]
2026-05-12

The NASDAQ will fail to reach higher future price targets.

PND—CONF 60
NASDAQ[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-12

The NASDAQ would retrace down to the $700 level.

PND—CONF 60
The market[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-05-12

The market is preparing for a violent rotation.

PRT—CONF 60
General (geopolitical)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-08

Geopolitical de-escalation is not expected.

COR—CONF 85
AMD, CPU manufacturers[BUY]
2026-05-08

AMD and other CPU manufacturers are undervalued and will be a good investment.

PND—CONF 85
Consumer consumption[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-08

Average hourly earnings, even if low at 0.2% or 0.3% month-over-month, will help hold up consumer consumption.

COR—CONF 60
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-08

The oil market might collapse the economy within five to seven days, possibly a little longer.

PRT+6.9%CONF 35
INTC[BUY]
2026-05-06

Intel stock would rocket right through the $100 price level.

COR+9.6%CONF 85
QQQ[BUY]
2026-05-06

The NASDAQ 100 (Cues) would likely reach a price target of $182 to $184.

PND+1.8%CONF 60
The markets[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-06

Donald Trump's actions and rhetoric will continue to talk the markets up, despite negative geopolitical and economic 'sin', because underlying economic data remains strong.

COR—CONF 85
QQQ[BUY]
2026-05-06

The Q's (NASDAQ 100) would reach a price target of $700 and then fly right through it.

PND+1.8%CONF 85
The market[BUY]
2026-05-05

The market would not remain down despite a red start to the week due to strong bullish economic drivers.

COR—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

Jerome Powell will clearly communicate a worse oil situation, potentially complicating Kevin Worsh's tenure as the incoming Fed Chair.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
stock market (call options)[AVOID]
2026-04-29

It was not a good time to buy call options (speculate on upward movement) for stocks in the week of April 29th, 2026 due to impending Fed action and earnings, which proved to be the right call.

PND—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

As Brent crude oil approaches its price target of $120, the stock market will face more headwinds.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
Iran (geopolitical event impacting oil)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

Donald Trump has instructed his aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran.

PND—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

Jerome Powell will use his final meeting to indicate that interest rates will be higher for longer due to sustained higher oil prices.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Federal Reserve Chairman (macro event)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-29

Kevin Worsh is quite likely to take over as chairman of the Federal Reserve by May 15th, 2026, following the dropping of a lawsuit against Jerome Powell.

PND—CONF 85
QQQ[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-27

The NASDAQ quietly changed its index inclusion rules, lowering the requirement to less than 10% outstanding float, specifically anticipating the SpaceX IPO, where Elon Musk is expected to float only 6-7% of the company.

PND−0.5%CONF 85
TSLA[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-27

Elon Musk's plan to gain complete control of Tesla is likely, though not guaranteed.

PND−0.2%CONF 60
TSLA, SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-27

Elon Musk is likely to attempt a Machiavellian takeover of Tesla, which will affect both Tesla and SpaceX.

PND—CONF 60
unemployment rate, ADP employment report[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-22

While the true unemployment rate is probably over 5% due to potential manipulation of official government data, the latest ADP employment trends show incredibly strong gains.

PND—CONF 60
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-22

The Strait of Hormuz situation will continue to lead to higher for longer crude oil prices.

PRT+7.4%CONF 85
economy, stocks[BUY]
2026-04-22

The economy is surprisingly strengthening despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts, leading to an increase in stock allocations and positions.

PND—CONF 85
general market sentiment[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-22

The speaker's internal Bear Bull scale rating has increased to 7.1, indicating a more bullish market outlook.

PND—CONF 85
US-Iran conflict[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-21

Donald Trump is 'reloading,' implying preparation for a surprise strike against Iran.

PND—CONF 60
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-21

Donald Trump will maintain a blockade in the Straight of Hormuz indefinitely.

PRT+11.1%CONF 85
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
macro shock
n=1
A significant portion of predictions revolve around rapidly evolving geopolitical events (e.g., US-Iran conflict, Strait of Hormuz blockade), which are highly unpredictable and can lead to sudden market shifts.
timing issue
n=1
Many predictions have short time horizons (intraday, weeks), where precise timing is crucial, leading to 'partial' or 'wrong' outcomes even if the broader thesis might eventually hold true.
benchmark flattery
n=1
An overall average alpha of 0.2% and accuracy vs. base rate of 4.3% suggests that while some calls are successful, the cumulative performance over time does not significantly outperform general market benchmarks.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
CL=F50%
MRVL3260%
NVDA1100%
SpaceX1100%
^GSPC—