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LemonCrypto
@mmcrypto · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 4 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
NARRAT
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
INSUFF
PRED
5
GRADE
D-
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=4
100
ACC
0
α
98
CAL
100
SNT
50
RSK
0
DSC
50
SRV
42
RAD
37
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=4 · SIG — · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
100
5 CALLS
α
0
−15.7%
CAL
98
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
42
SHARPE
CRD
37
D-
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
1Y AGO9M6M3MNOWBTC · 11-01CONF 85 · MONTHS−16.2% · PND
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE5
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/5
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
11-01BTCBitcoin will reach a target price of $95,000 before the end of the year.WEEKS85[BUY]COR−16.4%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin (BTC) is breaking out and will reach a target of $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−15.8%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin's price will reach $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−14.4%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin (BTC) will reach a target of $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−16.1%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin (BTC) will reach $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]PND−16.2%—---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
oversimplification
n=1
The 100% accuracy score is based on a very small sample size (4 scored predictions) and is flagged as preliminary, making it statistically unreliable; the confidence interval lower bound is 51%.
timing issue
n=1
Despite calls being marked 'correct', the significant negative alpha (-15.69%) suggests that returns lagged the overall market or benchmark, indicating sub-optimal timing or asset selection relative to the broader trend.
hindsight editing
n=1
The 'correct' outcome assigned to price targets (e.g., Bitcoin reaching $95,000) appears inconsistent with the actual price movements observed (from ~$31 to ~$34). This suggests a flawed methodology for outcome verification or a redefinition of 'correctness' that may be misleading.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC4100%