›creator—idnewmoneyyoutube—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
NM
New Money
@newmoneyyoutube · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 8 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
NARRAT
RISK
MODERA
TIER
PRELIM
PRED
26
GRADE
D
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=8
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=8 · SIG — · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
81
26 CALLS
α
50
+0.0%
CAL
88
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
50
SHARPE
CRD
43
D
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE26
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/26
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-19private creditPrivate credit will eventually experience a significant collapse, shocking industry executives and leading to negative outcomes.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-19private creditThe private credit industry will eventually experience a significant collapse, surprising executives and leading to negative consequences similar to the GFC.UNSPECIFIED85[AVOID]PND——---
04-19private creditProblems within the private credit market are currently being discovered.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-19private credit, marketSteve Eisman is currently sounding the alarm on private credit and the risks it poses to the market over the next few years.1-2_YEARS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-12SaaS sectorThe rise of AI agents poses a significant threat to the current pricing models of traditional Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) companies, potentially leading to lower license sales due to decreased customer headcount.1-2_YEARS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-12Software stocksSoftware stocks such as Salesforce, Adobe, Snowflake, Atlassian, and Intuit, despite recent significant drops, are fundamentally sound businesses that are currently being irrationally dumped by investors.UNSPECIFIED60[HOLD]PND——---
04-12Software companies with per-head pricing models (e.g., Adobe, Salesforce)AI's impact on business headcount will lead to a significant reduction in the number of licenses and users for per-head pricing software companies like Adobe or Salesforce.UNSPECIFIED60[AVOID]COR——---
04-12SAS software sectorAI agents and solutions are expected to replace existing Software-as-a-Service (SAS) tools, posing an existential threat to these businesses.UNSPECIFIED60[AVOID]PND——---
04-10US economy / US national debtThe national debt is the sole genuine existential threat to the United States.5+_YEARS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-10US national debtCurrent governmental decisions are likely to exacerbate the national debt problem.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=1
timing issue
n=1
The low number of scored predictions (8) makes the overall accuracy and alpha metrics preliminary and potentially subject to statistical noise rather than representing a consistent long-term track record.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
US National Debt2100%
AI industry1100%
private credit—
AI Industry1100%
US national debt—