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Patrickboyleonfinance
@patrickboyleonfinance · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 4 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
HYBRID
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
INSUFF
PRED
5
GRADE
D-
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=4
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=4 · SIG — · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
100
5 CALLS
α
0
−16.0%
CAL
98
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
42
SHARPE
CRD
37
D-
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE5
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/5
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
11-01BTCBitcoin (BTC) is breaking out and will reach a target of $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−16.4%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin is breaking out.UNSPECIFIED85[BUY]COR−15.8%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin will reach $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−15.8%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin will reach a target of $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−16.1%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin (BTC) will reach a target of $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]PND−16.2%—---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
benchmark flattery
n=1
While predictions were marked 'correct' due to the asset moving in the predicted direction, the significant negative alpha (-16.03%) indicates the benchmark performed substantially better, making the 100% accuracy score misleading regarding relative performance.
timing issue
n=1
The 'correct' outcomes are based on short-term price movements following the prediction. However, some predictions, like the $95,000 Bitcoin target, have longer time horizons and remain unfulfilled, suggesting the current 'correct' status doesn't reflect the full ambition of the call.
oversimplification
n=1
The definition of 'correct' for these predictions appears to be based solely on the asset's direction, without factoring in the magnitude of the target or performance relative to a benchmark, which can oversimplify actual investment success.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC4100%