GURUSCOPE
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Patrick Boyle

@pboyle · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 0 VERIFIED · 3M
CAT
NARRATIVE
Investing style category
RISK
MODERATE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
30
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D
Overall letter grade
44
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D
SIG — · n=0
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=0
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
79
30 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
50
+0.0%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
80
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
100
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
50
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all30
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS30 PREDICTIONS
Federal Reserve[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The independence of the Federal Reserve is in immediate jeopardy due to a direct legal assault from the White House, posing a risk to global capital markets.

PRT—CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin's current trillion-dollar valuation is precarious due to its lack of unique utility beyond being the first, and this valuation is not sustainable based on such a "thin thread."

PND—CONF 85
Global Geopolitics[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Economic logic will no longer reliably prevent conflicts when trust is replaced by coercion, suggesting that economically self-defeating conflicts are likely to occur.

COR—CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin's valuation, based solely on its 'first mover' status, is precarious and not sustainable for its trillion-dollar scale.

PND—CONF 60
European Geopolitical Strategy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Europe will continue to strategically recalculate its defense posture, moving towards defending itself from America rather than just with or without it.

WRG—CONF 60
Global financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-29

Borrowing costs, particularly for government debt, will become expensive enough to start breaking things in other parts of the financial system.

COR—CONF 60
Global Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-29

Inflationary pressures will continue due to trade friction, supply chain disruption, and aging populations.

PND—CONF 60
Financial System[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-29

High borrowing costs are likely to cause systemic issues in the financial system.

PND—CONF 60
Global Markets[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-29

The era of essentially free money is likely over.

PND—CONF 60
inflation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-29

Trade friction, supply chain disruption, and aging populations are all contributing to inflationary pressures.

COR—CONF 60
20 MORE
global economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-29

The era of essentially free money is probably over for markets.

COR—CONF 60
financial system[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-29

Borrowing costs will become expensive enough to start breaking things in other parts of the financial system.

PRT—CONF 60
Chinese property sector[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-16

The Chinese property sector, which has been falling for years, shows no real signs of stopping its decline.

COR—CONF 60
US-China Summit outcomes[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-16

The upcoming US-China summit will have modest outcomes.

COR—CONF 85
US-China Trade Dispute[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-16

The underlying issues of the US-China trade dispute will not be fixed because leaders do not appear to understand its accounting nature.

COR—CONF 85
US-China relations[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-16

The summit between Trump and Xi Jinping will be mostly remembered for the photographs rather than significant outcomes.

COR—CONF 60
US-China relations[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-16

Expectations for the Trump and Xi Jinping summit are modest.

COR—CONF 60
Inflation / Consumer Prices[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-02

The increase in oil prices, specifically Brent crude above $125 a barrel due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is rapidly working its way into everything consumers buy, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures.

COR—CONF 60
Consumer prices / Inflation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-02

The increase in oil prices, caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is rapidly causing a rise in the cost of all consumer goods.

COR—CONF 60
Geopolitical stability / Oil prices[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-25

The current Middle East conflict, specifically the shooting war in the Strait of Hormuz, will not be easily resolved by diplomatic means or unilateral withdrawal, contrary to investors' assumptions of a 'taco moment'.

COR—CONF 85
Event contract trading platforms[AVOID]
2026-04-18

People participating in event contract trading platforms will inevitably lose money, as quantitative algorithms are designed to extract money from the public on these platforms.

WRG—CONF 85
Private credit[AVOID]
2026-03-20

The previously high returns from private credit are deteriorating and will continue to be poor.

PRT—CONF 60
SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-14

SpaceX's IPO is expected to be the largest in history, targeting a valuation as high as 1.75 trillion dollars.

PND—CONF 85
SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-14

SpaceX has reportedly targeted June 2026 for its IPO.

COR—CONF 60
SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-14

Rumors suggest the targeted IPO date for SpaceX is June 9th, 2026.

WRG—CONF 35
Public markets, AI IPOs[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-14

Public markets may lack sufficient capital to support three massive AI IPOs simultaneously, implying the first company to go public will secure the largest share.

PND—CONF 60
SpaceX IPO[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-14

The SpaceX IPO offering is expected to generate massive demand from retail investors.

PND—CONF 85
SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-14

SpaceX's upcoming IPO is expected to be the largest in history with a target valuation as high as 1.75 trillion dollars.

COR—CONF 60
SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-14

SpaceX's IPO offering is expected to see massive demand from retail investors.

COR—CONF 60
Public markets / AI listings[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-14

There might not be enough capital in public markets to support three massive capital-intensive AI listings simultaneously, suggesting the first mover will get the biggest share.

PND—CONF 60
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
All predictions are dated in 2026, representing a very recent or forward-looking dataset. This makes long-term performance assessment and rolling accuracy calculations currently impossible.
oversimplification
n=1
Many predictions are high-level macro commentaries which can be less precise than specific financial instrument calls, potentially making accuracy appear higher due to broader interpretations of 'correct' outcomes.
benchmark flattery
n=1
The average alpha is 0.0% and there are zero market-scored predictions, indicating that the high accuracy does not translate into measurable investment returns compared to a benchmark.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
SpaceX3175%
US-China relations2100%
BTC-USD—
Federal Reserve50%
Global Geopolitics1100%