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PensionCraft

@pensioncraft · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 1 VERIFIED · 2M
CAT
NARRATIVE
Investing style category
RISK
MODERATE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
80
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D
Overall letter grade
45
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D
SIG — · n=1
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=1
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
100
80 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
50
+0.0%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
84
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
100
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
50
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all80
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS80 PREDICTIONS
—[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The video is sponsored by WisdomTree.

COR—CONF 85
Global AI productivity gains[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The biggest productivity gains from AI may not show up where most investors are looking.

COR—CONF 35
Bank of England base rate[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The Bank of England base rate, currently at 3.75% as of March 2026, is on a downward trajectory and is expected by markets to fall to around 3% eventually, assuming oil shocks settle down.

WRG—CONF 60
—[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The video is sponsored by Lightyear.

COR—CONF 85
Cash ISAs[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

New limits on cash ISAs are going to start in April 2027.

COR—CONF 85
Money market fund yields[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Money market fund yields will fall as the Bank of England base rate declines.

PND—CONF 85
^GSPC[BUY]
2026-06-07

The S&P 493 (S&P 500 excluding the Magnificent Seven) performance indicates a positive outlook for index investors, despite a potential slowdown in the Magnificent Seven.

PND—CONF 60
US Treasuries[AVOID]
2026-06-07

US Treasuries may no longer behave like reliable insurance due to being crowded, politicized, and structurally more fragile than investors realize.

COR—CONF 60
—[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The video is sponsored by Trading 212.

COR—CONF 85
UK Real Estate sector[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

AI could improve property valuation, rent forecasting, tenant matching, and building maintenance in the real estate sector, leading to higher yields and lower operating costs.

PND—CONF 60
70 MORE
Investable UK service subsectors[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-07

Some of the largest investable categories within UK services stand to benefit from AI adoption.

PND—CONF 60
AI impact across economic sectors[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

AI matters more in services than it does in manufacturing.

PND—CONF 85
Longer notice period savings accounts (120-180 days) vs. Easy access savings accounts[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-07

Longer notice period savings accounts (120-180 days), offering rates of 4.3% to 4.5%, are predicted to outperform most easy access alternatives.

PND—CONF 60
General market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The influencer anticipates a future market selloff for which he is preparing a shopping list of investments.

WRG—CONF 60
UK services sector[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Information-heavy and decision-based activities within the UK services sector could become more efficient and productive with the use of AI.

PND—CONF 60
UK stock market[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-07

The UK stock market could be positioned for outperformance.

PRT—CONF 60
UK economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The UK economy stands to gain from AI.

PND—CONF 60
SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

SpaceX will be included in almost every passive investment portfolio globally by the end of this year.

COR—CONF 85
Labor market / Physical AI[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-23

Physical AI will significantly impact the labor market for non-office workers, including retail, hospitality, food service, and care workers.

PND—CONF 85
AI (Artificial Intelligence)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-23

The next wave of AI will involve physical tasks such as driving lorries, picking orders, and building things, moving beyond digital AI's impact on office workers.

COR—CONF 85
Physical AI (Investment Theme)[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-05-23

Physical AI will be one of the biggest investment themes of the next decade.

PND—CONF 85
interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-16

The real income squeeze from higher energy bills is not pushing the Bank of England towards interest rate cuts but rather giving them a reason to hold and wait.

COR—CONF 60
Interest Rates / Bank of England Policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-16

The Bank of England's real income squeeze dilemma gives them a reason to hold and wait on interest rates, rather than pushing them towards cuts.

COR—CONF 60
Personal finance / Investment returns[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-09

Most people starting out with investment underestimate both the percentage of income saved and the percentage of returns lost to fees, leading to a worse financial outcome over their working life.

PRT—CONF 60
interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

Interest rates and monetary policy rates are going to be kept higher for longer.

COR—CONF 60
AI-benefiting companies[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-05-07

Companies benefiting from AI will see significant earnings growth due to the huge demand for AI.

PND—CONF 85
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

Earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies benefiting from AI are storming ahead and are fair due to huge demand for AI.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Fixed income (monetary policy rates, bond yields)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

Monetary policy rates will remain higher for longer, leading to higher yields.

PND—CONF 60
Companies benefiting from AI[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-07

The strong demand for AI will continue, supporting significant growth in earnings forecasts for companies benefiting from AI.

COR—CONF 85
Commodities, Equity[AVOID]
2026-05-02

Commodities no longer provide a significant diversification benefit for equity portfolios.

WRG—CONF 85
US data center power demand[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-25

US data center power demand is projected to grow to roughly 134 gigawatts by 2030.

PND—CONF 60
US data center power demand[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-25

US data center power demand is projected to reach approximately 75 gigawatts by the end of 2026.

PND—CONF 60
nuclear energy sector[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-04-25

Nuclear energy is gaining renewed attention as a solution for the increasing electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence.

PND—CONF 60
US data center power demand[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-25

US data center power demand will grow to roughly 134 gigawatts by 2030.

PND—CONF 60
US data center power demand[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-25

US data center power demand is going to hit around 75 gigawatts by the end of 2026.

PND—CONF 60
equities[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-22

Currency risk for equities largely diminishes over long holding periods, adding only minor volatility over decades.

WRG—CONF 60
global stock funds[BUY]
2026-04-22

For investors with a long-term horizon, owning a global stock fund is a fundamental investment decision.

PND—CONF 85
equities[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-22

Over long holding periods, currency risk for equities largely washes out and is fairly manageable over decades, only adding a few percentage points to volatility.

PND—CONF 60
UK economy[AVOID]
2026-04-18

The UK is currently in a particularly vulnerable position among major economies regarding economic challenges like stagflation.

PRT—CONF 60
US inflation, US economic growth[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

Tariffs in 2025 and 2026 are likely contributing to an increase in US inflation by half a percentage point or more, while simultaneously hindering economic growth.

COR—CONF 60
Global economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

An additional energy shock, when combined with current conditions, would likely create the historical prerequisites for stagflation.

WRG—CONF 35
economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

If the economy slows, jobs will become less secure.

PND—CONF 60
UK economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

The UK is probably the worst positioned of any major economy.

PND—CONF 60
US inflation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

In 2025 and 2026, tariffs are probably pushing US inflation up by half a percentage point or more, while also dragging on growth, and layering an energy shock on top would create conditions for stagflation.

PND—CONF 60
economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

When inflation comes from the supply side, raising interest rates crushes an already weak economy and kills growth.

PND—CONF 85
global economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

If an energy shock occurs on top of current conditions (tariffs, inflation, dragging growth), it would historically produce stagflation.

PND—CONF 60
US inflation, US economic growth[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

Tariffs in 2025 and 2026 are probably pushing US inflation up by half a percentage point or more, while simultaneously dragging on growth.

PND—CONF 60
UK economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

The UK is probably the worst positioned of any major economy right now.

PND—CONF 60
US inflation, US economic growth[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

Tariffs will probably push US inflation up by perhaps half a percentage point or more in 2025 and 2026, while also dragging on growth.

PND—CONF 60
UK economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

The UK is probably the worst positioned of any major economy currently.

PND—CONF 60
CSH2 (Amundi money market fund)[HOLD]
2026-04-11

If Amundi, the manager of the CSH2 money market fund, were to become insolvent, the fund's assets would be protected and transferred to a new manager or wound up, due to being ring-fenced by UCITS law.

PND—CONF 85
UCITS funds[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-11

What actually protects fund investors isn't FSCS, but UCITS law.

PND—CONF 85
Money Market Fund units on platform[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-11

If you've bought money market fund units on a platform, the relevant limit is the FSCS investment protection limit of £85,000, which applies only if the platform becomes insolvent and there's a shortfall in returning assets, but not if the value of your fund falls.

PND—CONF 85
Uninvested cash on investment platform[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-11

If you have uninvested cash sitting on an investment platform in CAS client money accounts, FSCS deposit protection still applies, but it attaches to the underlying banks where the platform deposits your cash up to 120k per banking license.

PND—CONF 85
Money Market Fund[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-11

The Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) does not protect money market funds up to £120,000 in the way many investors think.

PND—CONF 85
GC=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-02

Central bank gold buying flows have largely gone into reverse as countries sell reserve assets to preserve currency value.

PND−7.6%CONF 85
^GSPC[BUY]
2026-04-02

The S&P 500 looks a lot cheaper due to upward revisions in forecast earnings and a lower index price following a recent market drop.

COR+0.0%CONF 85
GC=F[AVOID]
2026-04-02

Higher interest rates are bad for gold.

PND−7.6%CONF 85
GC=F[AVOID]
2026-04-02

A strong dollar is bad for gold.

PND−7.6%CONF 85
GC=F[AVOID]
2026-04-02

The combination of factors, including higher interest rates, a strong dollar, and central bank selling, creates a pretty awful scenario for gold, largely outweighing any fear-driven pushes upwards.

PND−7.6%CONF 60
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-02

The S&P 500 looks a lot cheaper due to higher forecast earnings and a lower index price.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Japanese equities[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Japanese households will continue to move their financial assets from cash into equities.

PND—CONF 85
Japan stock market[BUY]
2026-03-28

Japan's stock market deserves a place in an investment portfolio.

PND—CONF 60
Japanese economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Japan's economy is transitioning from deflation to one with moderate, sustainable inflation.

COR—CONF 85
Japanese equities[BUY]
2026-03-28

Japan deserves a place in an investor's portfolio.

PND—CONF 60
Japanese economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Rising wages in Japan will create a virtuous cycle where workers spend more, companies earn more, and the economy normalizes.

PND—CONF 60
Japanese equities[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Japanese earnings growth is projected to be around 10% for 2026.

PND—CONF 60
Japanese equities[BUY]
2026-03-28

Japan deserves a place in investor portfolios.

PND—CONF 60
Japanese economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Japan is transitioning from a deflationary economy to one characterized by moderate, sustainable inflation.

PND—CONF 85
Japan (economy)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Deflation in Japan has ended.

COR—CONF 85
Japan (economy)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Japan is moving from a deflationary economy to one with moderate sustainable inflation.

COR—CONF 85
Japanese households' asset allocation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Japanese households are finally moving out of cash and into equities.

COR—CONF 85
Japan equities[BUY]
2026-03-28

The Japanese stock market deserves a place in investors' portfolios.

PND—CONF 60
Japan equities[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Earnings growth for Japan is projected at around 10% for 2026.

PND—CONF 60
Japan (economy)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Japan is moving from a deflationary economy to one with moderate sustainable inflation, fundamentally changing its investment case.

COR—CONF 85
Japan (equities)[BUY]
2026-03-28

Japan deserves a place in your portfolio.

PND—CONF 85
Japan (equities)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-28

Japan's earnings growth is projected at around 10% for 2026.

COR—CONF 60
global equity market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-25

Global equity markets will be driven higher as companies generate increasing profits.

PND—CONF 60
Global equity market[BUY]
2026-03-25

Global equity indices and personal wealth will increase as companies generate growing profits, driven by capitalism.

PND—CONF 85
Global equity market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-03-25

Companies will generate increasing profits, which will drive global equity indices and personal wealth higher over the long term.

PND—CONF 85
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
data cherry picking
n=1
The overall 100% accuracy score is heavily skewed by a single market-scored prediction. The broader set of 27 narrative predictions has a 75.9% accuracy, which is a more representative figure for this guru's content.
timing issue
n=1
A majority of predictions (63 out of 80) are still pending, meaning the overall performance metrics are preliminary and subject to change as more outcomes are realized.
oversimplification
n=1
Alpha metrics are 0.0% for both average and median, but this is based on only one market-scored prediction, which offers an oversimplified view of potential outperformance.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
UK economy50%
^GSPC1100%
US data center power demand—
GC=F—
Japanese equities—