GURUSCOPE
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›creator--idpeterschiff
PS

Peter Schiff

@peterschiff · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 2 VERIFIED · 2M
CAT
NARRATIVE
Investing style category
RISK
SPECULATIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
42
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D
Overall letter grade
43
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D
SIG — · n=2
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=2
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
25
42 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
55
+1.0%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
73
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
98
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
56
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all42
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS42 PREDICTIONS
Inflation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Inflation is currently too high and is headed higher.

COR—CONF 85
GC=F[BUY]
2026-06-05

Investors should buy more gold and silver at current high prices, rather than selling.

PND−0.1%CONF 85
GC=F[BUY]
2026-06-05

The current strong performance of gold and silver is the beginning of a much larger upward movement for both metals.

PND−0.1%CONF 60
SI=F[BUY]
2026-06-05

Silver is poised for a huge short covering rally.

WRG−5.2%CONF 60
Inflation[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The existing inflation problem will worsen due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts.

WRG—CONF 85
Fed Quantitative Tightening / Balance Sheet[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The Federal Reserve is making a significant mistake by prematurely ending quantitative tightening while its balance sheet remains at $6.7 trillion.

COR—CONF 85
GC=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Gold prices at $4,000 indicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is too loose, and they should raise rates.

PND−0.1%CONF 85
GC=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Gold will ultimately be the sole means to bring stability to the markets.

PND−0.1%CONF 85
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Gold reserves will be very important in bringing stability back to the dollar.

PND+3.3%CONF 85
—[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The economy will experience a massive downturn with huge inflation before gold can bring stability.

WRG—CONF 85
32 MORE
—[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Trump will definitely succeed in appointing a Federal Reserve chairman who will implement easier monetary policy and lower interest rates.

WRG—CONF 85
—[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The current members of the Federal Reserve are not monetary policy hawks and therefore will not raise interest rates.

COR—CONF 85
GC=F[BUY]
2026-06-05

The gold stock market is a significant sector for investment, and listeners should be invested in it.

PND−0.1%CONF 85
US Economy / Fed Policy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The US will experience bigger government deficits, which the Fed will fund with rate cuts and a return to quantitative easing.

PRT—CONF 60
US Economy / Affordability[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Life will become significantly more unaffordable under the Trump administration compared to the Biden administration.

PRT—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Gas prices are not going to remain low for much longer.

PND−0.3%CONF 60
Inflation / US Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The inflation rate will accelerate as Trump's term progresses due to his policies impacting prices.

COR—CONF 60
Fed Interest Rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates now is a significant mistake.

WRG—CONF 85
US jobs report data[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The reported 178,000 new jobs for March will be revised down one or more times over the next year.

COR—CONF 60
GC=F[AVOID]
2026-06-05

Tether Gold is a superior asset to Bitcoin because it represents real gold, while Bitcoin represents nothing of intrinsic value.

PND−0.1%CONF 85
US Economy / Economic Data[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Current US economic data is inaccurate and highly skewed, leading to future revisions.

COR—CONF 60
Inflation / US Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Inflation will be much more pernicious over the next few years than it was during the Biden presidency.

COR—CONF 85
US Economy / American Consumers[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

American consumers and the US economy will be the primary losers from tariffs imposed by the US government on European goods.

COR—CONF 85
Global economy / US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-20

A global fiscal crisis, where 'chickens are coming home to roost' due to sovereign debt, will occur, particularly in America.

WRG—CONF 85
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-20

A major fiscal crisis will occur during Donald Trump's presidency.

WRG—CONF 85
TLT[AVOID]
2026-05-20

An 'accident' or crisis is imminent or will occur involving Japanese government bonds.

PND+2.0%CONF 85
Interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-20

Interest rates will eventually soar.

PRT—CONF 85
—[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The economy is characterized by weakening growth and strengthening inflation, leading to stagflation, which is the Federal Reserve's worst nightmare.

WRG—CONF 85
PPI, CPI[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a leading indicator, and the price trends observed in the PPI will subsequently be reflected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

PRT—CONF 85
CPI[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

Trends in the Producer Price Index (PPI) are a leading indicator and will subsequently be reflected in the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

PND—CONF 85
US Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The US economy is currently in a state of stagflation, characterized by a weakening economy and strengthening inflation, a situation the Fed has no policy tools to effectively address.

PRT—CONF 85
CPI[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a leading indicator for the Consumer Price Index (CPI), meaning what is observed in the PPI will subsequently happen in the CPI.

PND—CONF 85
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The US economy is facing stagflation with a weakening economy and strengthening inflation, and the Federal Reserve has no effective policy tools to deal with this situation.

COR—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

The Strait of Hormuz reopening is temporary and not permanent as Trump claims.

PRT+7.1%CONF 60
global oil supply[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-18

The Straight of Hormuz will likely be closed again, contrary to Donald Trump's claim of it never closing again.

PND—CONF 60
US Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-04

The US economy is not healthy when 43% of jobs are in healthcare.

PND—CONF 85
US Jobs Report[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-04

The reported 178,000 new jobs added in March will be revised down over the course of the next year or so.

PND—CONF 60
US Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-04

An economy where 43% of new jobs are in healthcare is not a healthy or strong economy.

COR—CONF 85
US Jobs Report[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-04

The reported 178,000 new jobs for March will be revised down at least once, possibly multiple times, over the next year or so.

PND—CONF 60
US economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-04

The US economy is not healthy when 43% of new jobs are created in healthcare.

PRT—CONF 60
US jobs report[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-04

The reported 178,000 new jobs for March will be revised downwards once or twice, possibly more, over the course of the next year or so.

PND—CONF 60
US Jobs Report[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-04

The reported March jobs numbers will be revised down once or twice, possibly more, over the course of the next year or so.

COR—CONF 60
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
Many predictions are set in the future (e.g., 2026 dates), making the current accuracy metrics highly preliminary and subject to significant change as these outcomes materialize. Only 26 out of 42 predictions are currently scored.
oversimplification
n=1
A stark difference between general macro claim accuracy (72.0%) and market-scored accuracy (25.0% on only 2 predictions) suggests that broad economic narratives may be easier to score as 'correct' or 'partial' than specific market movements.
data cherry picking
n=1
The extremely low number of market-scored predictions (2) makes any conclusions about market-timing or asset-specific alpha highly unreliable and potentially unrepresentative.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
GC=F—
US economy1150%
US Economy175%
US Jobs Report1100%
Inflation1150%