›creator—idsashayanshin—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
SY
Sasha Yanshin
@sashayanshin · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 31 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
HYBRID
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
EVALUA
PRED
71
GRADE
C
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=31
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=31 · SIG 79.1% · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
60
71 CALLS
α
75
+5.0%
CAL
80
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
56
SHARPE
CRD
53
C
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE71
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/71
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
02-15RAMThe cost of 64 GB of RAM, according to Amazon's own price tracker, is approximately three times as expensive as it was just 3 months ago.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
02-15AMZNAmazon plans to spend $200 billion on capital expenditures in 2026.1-2_YEARS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT+19.5%—---
02-15AMZNAmazon's free cash flow will become negative in 2026 because profits are not expected to increase by 50% year-on-year.1-2_YEARS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT+19.5%—---
02-15AMZNAmazon is actively burning money on a net basis, with more money leaving the company's bank account than arriving.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT+19.5%—---
02-15AMZNAmazon needs to borrow money to finance expenditure on data centers that they cannot otherwise afford.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT+19.5%—---
02-15AMZNAmazon will continue to burn money and needs to borrow to finance its data center expenditures.MONTHS85[AVOID]WRG+20.4%—---
02-15AMZNAmazon's free cash flow will become negative in 2026 if they proceed with their announced $200 billion capital expenditure plan, as profits will not increase proportionally.1-2_YEARS60[AVOID]WRG+20.4%—---
02-15AMZNAmazon's free cash flow will become negative in 2026.1-2_YEARS85[AVOID]WRG+21.2%—---
02-15AMZNAmazon profits are not going to increase by 50% year-on-year in 2026.1-2_YEARS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT+20.9%—---
02-15AMZNAmazon's free cash flow will become negative in 2026 if they proceed with their $200 billion capital expenditure plan.1-2_YEARS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT+20.9%—---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
timing issue
n=1
Several predictions have long time horizons (e.g., Amazon FCF in 2026) and many are still pending, meaning the current metrics are based on an incomplete track record. This can affect the perceived accuracy and alpha at present.
benchmark flattery
n=1
A significant discrepancy exists between accuracy and alpha performance: 100% accurate 'buy' calls had an average negative alpha, while 50% accurate 'avoid' calls had an average positive alpha. This suggests that the chosen benchmarks might be strongly outperforming the specific assets, or that the qualitative 'correct' outcome does not always translate to positive investment returns relative to the market.
oversimplification
n=1
Claims of 'illegal round-tripping fraud' regarding major tech companies (AMD, NVDA, ORCL, OpenAI) were marked as 'wrong,' indicating a potential oversimplification or mischaracterization of complex financial activities without sufficient evidence to substantiate such severe accusations.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
OpenAI1330%
AMZN335%
RAM—
BTC4100%
ORCL275%