›creator—idscottmelker—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
TW
The Wolf Of All Streets
@scottmelker · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 3 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
HYBRID
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
INSUFF
PRED
14
GRADE
D-
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=3
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=3 · SIG — · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
100
14 CALLS
α
0
−16.2%
CAL
98
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
42
SHARPE
CRD
37
D-
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE14
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/14
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-20Control group (economic data)The control group (excluding oil) is expected to be 210.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-20Worsh's testimony (Fed policy implications)Worsh's testimony tomorrow is expected to be somewhat dovish.INTRADAY60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-20Inflation, Consumption, Stock MarketAs long as the stock market mechanism is not adjusting, inflation and consumption will stay higher.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-20^TNXThe 10-year note is not going to really break out of its current range for quite a while.MONTHS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.0%—---
04-20Retail salesRetail sales are probably going to be up 1.2% this week.WEEKS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-17BTC-USDBitcoin's price will rise significantly.UNSPECIFIED85[BUY]PND+1.4%—---
04-17BTC-USDIf Bitcoin breaks above and holds the $74,000-$76,000 resistance level, it will likely increase by a few thousand dollars.UNSPECIFIED60[BUY]PND+1.4%—---
04-17BTC-USDBitcoin's market bottom is in at $60,000.UNSPECIFIED85[BUY]PND+1.4%—---
04-16^GSPCIt is not a good time to buy the S&P 500 breakout.UNSPECIFIED60[AVOID]PND+0.0%—---
04-16General MarketThe general market will go down.UNSPECIFIED85[SELL]PND——---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
oversimplification
n=1
The small number of scored predictions (3 out of 14 total) provides an oversimplified view of the guru's overall performance and track record. The 100% accuracy is based on very limited data.
timing issue
n=1
Despite 100% accuracy on scored calls, the significant negative alpha (-16.16%) suggests that predictions, while directionally correct, underperformed the market benchmark due to timing or magnitude of price movements.
market conditions
n=1
The primary focus on the crypto market, known for extreme volatility, implies a high-risk environment which can lead to substantial drawdowns (e.g., -49.34% max drawdown) even on successful directional predictions.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC3100%
BTC-USD—
Control group (economic data)—
Worsh's testimony (Fed policy implications)—
Inflation, Consumption, Stock Market—