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›creator--idscottmelker
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The Wolf Of All Streets

@scottmelker · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 1 VERIFIED · 2M
CAT
HYBRID
Investing style category
RISK
SPECULATIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
52
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
C-
Overall letter grade
50
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
C-
SIG — · n=1
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=1
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
50
52 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
100
+28.7%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
82
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
98
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
50
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all52
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS52 PREDICTIONS
Digital Asset Industry[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The future of digital assets belongs to companies that successfully combine banking discipline with crypto attributes like speed, programmability, and global access.

PRT—CONF 60
Crypto market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Upcoming monster IPOs from SpaceX and OpenAI could drain liquidity from the crypto market.

PND—CONF 60
Wall Street[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Wall Street may be setting up for a major reckoning.

WRG—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Institutions are demonstrating conviction in blockchains, tokenized assets, and Bitcoin by actively building on them, indicating a positive future direction for the crypto industry.

PND—CONF 85
Crypto[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The next significant catalyst for crypto may come from AI developments instead of political events.

PND—CONF 60
Crypto, Traditional Finance, Autonomous Agents[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The collision between crypto, traditional finance, and autonomous agents is poised to be one of the most important stories of the next decade.

COR—CONF 85
Digital credit[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Digital credit could become a multi-trillion dollar market.

WRG—CONF 60
Digital credit[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Digital credit will conservatively represent at least 1% of the overall $300 trillion credit market, reaching $3 trillion.

PND—CONF 85
Preferred equity vs. convertible debt[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-07

Preferred equity may outperform convertible debt long-term.

PND—CONF 35
Digital credit[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The market opportunity for digital credit is exceeding expectations, showing exponential growth faster than anticipated.

COR—CONF 85
42 MORE
Digital assets (general)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Digital assets and their underlying infrastructure represent the new architecture of the financial system going into the future.

COR—CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

An announcement is coming from the White House regarding a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

PND—CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-07

MicroStrategy intends to maintain a net buying strategy for Bitcoin, purchasing 5 to 10 times more than any minor sales it might make in a given month.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin's price will reach 200,000, 500,000, a million, 2 million, 4 million, 8 million, and 16 million, and the speaker will be happy to continue buying at these progressively higher price points.

PND—CONF 85
Digital money, stable coins, yield coins[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The digital credit and yield coin ecosystem will evolve towards offering stable coins or bank accounts with zero volatility and attractive yields (around 8%), representing the next step in digital money.

PRT—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Capital will increasingly flow in a virtuous cycle between yield coins, digital credit, and Bitcoin, invigorating and merging the broader crypto and digital assets ecosystem.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin is currently in a fundamentally stronger position compared to when it reached all-time highs, due to improvements in the regulatory environment, liquidity, infrastructure, and institutional participation.

PND—CONF 60
Financial Services Infrastructure[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The infrastructure layer of financial services is becoming decentralized.

COR—CONF 85
All assets[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Everything is about to be tokenized.

PRT—CONF 85
Portfolios / Tokens[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Custom portfolio construction for clients will be entirely composed of tokens.

PND—CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

Bitcoin's current relatively tight trading range could be an accumulation phase leading to a capitulation move to the downside.

PND—CONF 35
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The government will print massive amounts of money following the current situation with Iran.

PND—CONF 60
DX-Y.NYB[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The current situation is designed to enable the government to print a significant amount of additional money.

PND—CONF 85
Interest rates / Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The current administration's primary goal is to lower interest rates.

WRG—CONF 85
Political outcome / Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

The current administration has a five-to-six-month window to improve economic conditions to avoid losing power.

COR—CONF 85
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-06-07

If history repeats the bear flag pattern, Bitcoin could be heading back to the $40,000 range.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

If the obscure financial product that Michael Saylor relies on breaks its $100 peg, Bitcoin could lose its biggest buyer overnight.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-07

If Michael Saylor continues to be unable to raise money, the market will eventually start discounting the fact that he is no longer a major buyer of Bitcoin.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[AVOID]
2026-06-05

Bitcoin is in danger of dropping to $60,000.

PND−1.9%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-04

Bitcoin is currently in the process of bottoming.

PND−2.7%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-04

Current Bitcoin price levels, specifically around the 200 MA, are an attractive entry point for those who anticipate Bitcoin's recovery.

PND−2.7%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-04

Bitcoin is approaching a bottom in the not too distant future, indicated by a lot of bottoming signals.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-06-04

Investing into Bitcoin now (T-wap) will result in satisfaction a year from now, despite potential short-term regrets.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-04

It is totally possible Bitcoin could trade into the $50,000s during its bottoming process.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-04

Bitcoin is in the process of bottoming, similar to the early 2019 crypto winter, as all negative news is already well known in the market.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Interest rates market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-11

Expected CPI levels (3.7% to 3.8%) should keep the interest rate market stuck in its current range, despite increasing volatility.

COR—CONF 60
DX-Y.NYB[HOLD]
2026-05-11

The US Dollar will continue consolidating without any big changes.

PND+0.5%CONF 60
CPI[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-11

CPI (year-over-year) is expected to be 3.7%, and monthly CPI 0.58% or 0.6%, primarily due to gasoline.

PND—CONF 60
Core CPI[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-11

Core CPI (year-over-year) is expected to be 2.7% due to a quirk related to government shutdown and housing data.

PRT—CONF 60
Federal Reserve interest rates[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-11

The next Federal Reserve move will be an interest rate cut, though it will be delayed for quite a while.

WRG—CONF 60
TIPS[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-11

Real yields (10-year TIPS) are not expected to see an increase in coupons for quite a while.

PRT+28.7%CONF 60
Stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-11

The stock market is experiencing a 'blastoff' phase due to blowout earnings, including 27% EPS growth, with Nvidia's earnings still to come.

COR—CONF 85
Retail sales[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

Retail sales are probably going to be up 1.2% this week.

PND—CONF 60
^TNX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

The 10-year note is not going to really break out of its current range for quite a while.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Inflation, Consumption, Stock Market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

As long as the stock market mechanism is not adjusting, inflation and consumption will stay higher.

PND—CONF 60
Control group (economic data)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

The control group (excluding oil) is expected to be 210.

PND—CONF 60
Worsh's testimony (Fed policy implications)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

Worsh's testimony tomorrow is expected to be somewhat dovish.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-17

If Bitcoin breaks above and holds the $74,000-$76,000 resistance level, it will likely increase by a few thousand dollars.

PND+1.4%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-17

Bitcoin's price will rise significantly.

PND+1.4%CONF 85
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-17

Bitcoin's market bottom is in at $60,000.

PND+1.4%CONF 85
General Market[SELL]
2026-04-16

The general market will go down.

PND—CONF 85
^GSPC[AVOID]
2026-04-16

It is not a good time to buy the S&P 500 breakout.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
The track record is preliminary with a low number of scored predictions (16 out of 52 total), making overall performance metrics highly volatile and not fully representative.
benchmark flattery
n=1
The high average alpha of 28.73% is primarily driven by a single market-scored prediction (TIPS), which can disproportionately inflate the metric due to limited data points.
oversimplification
n=1
Bold, long-term price targets for assets like Bitcoin, while motivational, lack detailed rationale or risk management strategies for such extreme outcomes.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
BTC-USD—
Digital credit1150%
DX-Y.NYB—
Digital Asset Industry50%
Wall Street1—