GURUSCOPE
guruscopeguruthecryptolark
›creator--idthecryptolark
LD

Lark Davis

@thecryptolark · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 2 VERIFIED · 2M
CAT
HYBRID
Investing style category
RISK
SPECULATIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
48
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D-
Overall letter grade
39
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D-
SIG — · n=2
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=2
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
50
48 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
32
−3.7%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
67
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
100
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
70
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
0
0%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
34
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all48
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS48 PREDICTIONS
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-15

Michael Saylor's Bitcoin purchases will become a bimonthly event, assuming SEC approval, making the buying mechanism even more efficient.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-15

Michael Saylor is likely to buy $2-3 billion worth of Bitcoin over the next two days.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-15

Bitcoin will experience a self-fulfilling flywheel effect due to demand from MicroStrategy (STRC) as long as it remains popular.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
AI/tech stocks[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-15

The current market, particularly the AI trade, is not in a bubble despite some frothy sentiment.

WRG—CONF 60
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-15

The 'sell in May and go away' strategy will not be the right approach for the S&P 500 this year.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-15

We will soon start seeing new Bitcoin index ETFs and other products that will consistently hold Bitcoin.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[HOLD]
2026-05-15

There is no significant bearish case for Bitcoin at the moment, given sustained institutional demand and new ETF products.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-15

The Bitcoin halving no longer significantly impacts supply reduction because mining is a 'rounding error' in the context of the current market size.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Crypto (general)[HOLD]
2026-05-14

The passing of the Clarity Act might lead to a very short-term 'sell the news' event for crypto, but prices will quickly recover and be pumped up shortly after.

PND—CONF 60
US labor market (information technology sector)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

AI adoption is leading to a significant decrease in IT sector employment relative to total US non-farm payrolls, which will be problematic for jobs.

PRT—CONF 60
38 MORE
AI stocks, tech stocks[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The current AI bull run is fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble and is not about to pop, as AI companies have strong fundamentals and real revenue.

COR—CONF 60
Crypto (general)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The passing of the Clarity Act could be the major catalyst for crypto in 2026.

PND—CONF 60
Crypto (general)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-14

The Clarity Act will pass the full Senate and eventually be signed into law by Trump.

PND—CONF 85
DeFi (sector)[AVOID]
2026-04-21

The risk-to-return profile for the DeFi sector is currently unfavorable and should be viewed with serious doubt due to ongoing hacks, making it largely unusable for investment in its current form.

PND—CONF 60
DeFi[AVOID]
2026-04-21

DeFi's risk/return doesn't add up and raises serious doubts about its usability in its current form due to ongoing hacks.

PND—CONF 85
markets[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-21

Markets will probably sell the news shortly after a peace deal is signed today.

PND—CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-21

Bitcoin is going to go up if a peace deal is signed.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-21

Investors should buy more Bitcoin when the world feels like it's blowing up.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
markets[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-21

If a peace deal is signed today in the Middle East, markets are going to rip.

PND—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-21

Crude oil is probably going to go down if a peace deal is signed.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
S&P futures[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-20

A V-shaped recovery in the market will be followed by a massive rally.

PND—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-17

A very successful negotiation regarding the Iran ceasefire will be announced soon, leading to free oil, an open Strait of Hormuz, and a resolution to the conflict, which will be positive for markets.

PRT−12.7%CONF 60
S&P 100[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-16

The S&P 100 will not be a bear market in 2026 because historical precedents show similar drawdowns recovered to new all-time highs.

PND—CONF 60
^GSPC[BUY]
2026-04-16

The S&P 500 will continue its upward trend, retracing its prior move down and proving bears wrong.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
Stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-16

The ongoing negotiations between Iran and the US will lead to an end of the conflict by summer, resulting in lower gas prices and a bullish environment for the stock market.

PND—CONF 85
^GSPC[BUY]
2026-04-16

S&P 500 futures markets are indicating a further 40-point jump.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Momentum for Bitcoin is shifting in favor of the bulls.

PND+0.2%CONF 60
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Bitcoin has immediate upside potential to reach identified resistance trend lines.

PND+0.2%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-15

Bitcoin will experience a significant price increase.

PND+0.2%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Bitcoin will reach the top of the channel trend line or the downtrend line before its next major move.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
BTC-USD[BUY]
2026-04-15

Bitcoin will significantly increase in value.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-15

Momentum is shifting back in favor of Bitcoin bulls, as indicated by the 20/50-day EMA bullish crossover.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Altcoins[BUY]
2026-04-14

Thoughtful exposure to altcoins beyond Bitcoin could be worth considering for a portfolio that reflects crypto's future direction.

PND—CONF 35
Markets (stocks and crypto)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

The ongoing US-Iran negotiations and Trump's April 27th deadline for a deal are very positive.

WRG—CONF 60
Altcoins[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-14

Some altcoins may become essential infrastructure for the future financial system.

COR—CONF 35
Portfolios (stocks and crypto)[BUY]
2026-04-14

The Iran situation has created great opportunities to buy market dips.

PND—CONF 85
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

In a worst-case scenario, oil prices will reach $170.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Global economy (GDP growth)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

In a worst-case scenario, global growth will be 2.2%.

COR—CONF 60
Global economy (inflation)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Global inflation will reach 5.2% by Q4.

WRG—CONF 60
Global economy (inflation)[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

In a worst-case scenario, global inflation will be 5.4%.

WRG—CONF 60
Stock market, investments[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

There will be no capital gains taxes paid because no one will have capital gains.

WRG—CONF 85
Fertilizer, essential goods[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

The price of essential goods like fertilizer will double.

COR—CONF 85
World economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

A Great Depression is coming.

WRG—CONF 85
BTC-USD[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

The world is facing its most powerful reset ever, which could be good or bad for Bitcoin holders.

PRT+5.3%CONF 60
CL=F[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-04-13

Oil prices will reach $105 in Q2.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Energy stocks[BUY]
2026-04-03

Energy stocks are good investment picks for the 'New Industrial Era' and will perform well in the future.

PND—CONF 60
UAE Stocks[BUY]
2026-03-27

The Top 5 UAE Stock Picks are good investment opportunities for the new world economy.

PND—CONF 85
UAE stocks[BUY]
2026-03-27

Investing in top-tier UAE companies presents a significant opportunity in the new world economy, offering a more stable alternative than speculative startups.

PND—CONF 60
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
timing issue
n=1
The track record is preliminary, with a significant portion of predictions still pending, limiting the comprehensiveness of the current accuracy and alpha metrics.
oversimplification
n=1
Some predictions are presented with highly emotional or generalized statements like 'Bitcoin to the moon,' lacking specific actionable details or nuanced analysis.
market conditions
n=1
All predictions analyzed occurred within a concentrated timeframe (April-May 2026), which may not reflect performance across diverse market conditions or longer economic cycles.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
BTC-USD50%
CL=F50%
^GSPC—
Crypto (general)—
Global economy (inflation)2—