›creator—idthemaverickofwallstreet—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
TM
The Maverick of Wall Street
@themaverickofwallstreet · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 7 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
HYBRID
RISK
SPECUL
TIER
PRELIM
PRED
15
GRADE
D-
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=7
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=7 · SIG 100.0% · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
93
15 CALLS
α
0
−15.8%
CAL
95
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
42
SHARPE
CRD
37
D-
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE15
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/15
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-09Gulf oil facilities, global economyIf President Trump had bombed Iran, Iran would have retaliated by bombing Gulf oil facilities, leading to the end of the global economy.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PRT——---
03-25futuresDue to the threats between President Trump and Iran, futures were plummeting overnight and the price of crude oil was spiking higher.INTRADAY85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-25CL=FIf Iran were to bomb energy infrastructures across the region in retaliation, crude oil would reach $300 a barrel.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND−11.4%—---
03-25stock marketIf Iran were to bomb energy infrastructures across the region in retaliation, the stock market would plummet by 20 to 50 percent.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
03-25CL=FIf the US bombs Iran's power plants, crude oil will reach $300 a barrel and the stock market will plummet by 20-50%.UNSPECIFIED60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND−4.9%—---
03-25CL=FIf the US were to bomb Iran's power plants, Iran would retaliate by bombing energy infrastructures across the region, causing crude oil to reach $300 a barrel and the stock market to plummet by 20-50%.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND−8.3%—---
03-25CL=FIf the US bombed Iran's power plants, Iran would bomb regional energy infrastructure, causing crude oil to reach $300 a barrel and the stock market to plummet by 20-50%.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.6%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin (BTC) will reach a target price of $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−16.4%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin is breaking out.UNSPECIFIED85[BUY]COR−15.8%—---
11-01BTCBitcoin's target price is $95,000 before the end of the year.MONTHS85[BUY]COR−15.8%—---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
oversimplification
n=1
The high prediction accuracy does not correlate with positive alpha; calls were 'correct' but significantly underperformed benchmarks. This suggests accuracy alone can be a misleading metric for investment performance.
market conditions
n=1
Many macro predictions are conditional and speculative, such as 'If the US bombed Iran...', making their evaluation complex and potentially less relevant for typical market analysis.
timing issue
n=1
A significant maximum drawdown (-49.34%) on a 'correct' Bitcoin prediction suggests that while the directional call might have been right, the timing or volatility could lead to substantial unrealized losses for investors.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
BTC6100%
CL=F—
Gulf oil facilities, global economy50%
futures—
stock market—