›creator—idtomnashtv—horizonALL—benchmarkSPY[F1] HELP · [F4] EXPORT · [⌘K] CMDS
TN
Tom Nash
@tomnashtv · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 1 VERIFIED · LAST 12M
CAT
HYBRID
RISK
AGGRES
TIER
INSUFF
PRED
16
GRADE
D
▸ VERDICT · 9 DIM SMALL.MULTIPLES
SIG — · n=1
ACC
α
CAL
SNT
RSK
DSC
SRV
RAD
CRD
▸SCORECARD · n=1 · SIG — · BAYES-WEIGHTED
ACC
100
16 CALLS
α
68
+3.6%
CAL
98
BRIER
SNT
100
DRIFT
RSK
50
DOWNSIDE
DSC
0
0%
SRV
50
ARCHIVED
RAD
50
SHARPE
CRD
46
D
▸PRED.TIMELINE · OVERLAY=SPY · MARKER∝CONF[1Y] [3Y●] [ALL]
■ COR■ WRG■ PRT◌ PND−··− SPY BENCH
▸DISCLOSURE.AUDIT · TR12M
HOLDINGS DISCLOSED0
PROMOTIONS TAGGED0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.0
REC · ZERO DISCLOSURE16
▸DELETED.CONTENT · ARCHIVED
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
▸PREDICTIONS.TABLESORT: DATE↓ · 10/16
DATEASSETCLAIMHORCONFRECOUTαNUANCEYXB
04-24oil pricesRising oil prices will create inflationary pressure on the economy, increasing production and transportation costs and leading to higher prices at stores.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-24portfolioThe Iran shock is coming and will be insane, significantly impacting portfolios.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-24marketThe market will continue to repeatedly experience crashes and collapses, following a historical pattern that has played out for over a hundred years.5+_YEARS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-24economyIncreased inflation due to oil will lead to declining macroeconomics, job losses, reduced consumer spending, stagflation, unemployment, and a massive market crash that the Fed cannot prevent.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-24portfolioInvestors unprepared for the Iran shock will be wiped out, while prepared investors will use the ensuing chaos to create generational wealth.UNSPECIFIED85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-16^GSPCHistorically, the market (S&P 500) typically bottoms around 30 days into a war, a pattern which was observed around March 30th during the current Iran war.WEEKS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.0%—---
04-16^GSPCThe S&P 500, currently at 6,900 as of April 15th, will continue to perform strongly for the next 12 months.1-2_YEARS60[GENERAL_MACRO]PND+0.0%—---
04-16wealthThe current market setup represents one of the greatest generational wealth creation moments of our lifetime.5+_YEARS85[GENERAL_MACRO]PND——---
04-10PLTRThe influencer is extremely bullish on Palantir stock.UNSPECIFIED85[BUY]COR+3.6%—---
04-06retail investor portfoliosDespite the S&P 500's average 10% annual return over 10 years, 90% of retail investors will end up losing money over the long term due to their flawed investment methodology.5+_YEARS85[AVOID]PND——---
▸CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
timing issue
n=1
Many predictions are set in the future (e.g., April 2026), making their outcomes unverifiable at present, which significantly limits the current analysis.
data cherry picking
n=1
With only one scored prediction out of sixteen, the 100% accuracy rate is highly preliminary and not statistically significant for evaluating overall performance.
oversimplification
n=1
Macro calls often use dramatic language about 'shocks' and 'wiped out' investors without providing highly nuanced analysis or clearly defined, actionable investment strategies for mitigation.
▸CONSENSUS.OVERLAP · TOP ASSETS
general market—
portfolio—
^GSPC—
PLTR1100%
oil prices—