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Sven Carlin

@value-investing · YOUTUBE
INDEXED · 3 VERIFIED · < 1M
CAT
HYBRID
Investing style category
RISK
SPECULATIVE
Risk tolerance level
TIER
INSUFFICIENT
Sample size reliability tier
PRED
63
Total predictions analyzed
GRADE
D-
Overall letter grade
37
Credibility
Overall credibility across all dimensions
D-
SIG — · n=3
Statistical significance of results given sample size
SCORECARD · n=3
8 supporting credibility dimensions, Bayes-weighted for sample size
Accuracy
0
63 CALLS
Percentage of predictions that were correct
Alpha
19
−6.2%
Returns above the S&P 500 benchmark
Calibration
73
BRIERBrier score: lower means better calibrated
How well stated confidence matches actual outcomes
Sentiment
100
DRIFTHow much sentiment shifted over time
Consistency of bullish/bearish stance over time
Risk
50
DOWNSIDEDownside risk acknowledgment score
Awareness of downside scenarios and risk factors
Disclosure
10
10%
Transparency about holdings and conflicts of interest
Survival
50
ARCHIVEDHandling of deleted or hidden predictions
Honesty about past missed or failed predictions
Risk-Adj
37
SHARPERisk-adjusted return ratio
Performance score adjusted for risk taken
PREDICTION TIMELINE · CONFIDENCE × DATE
Each marker is a prediction: position shows date and confidence, shape shows outcomeHIGHMEDLOW1Y AGO9M6M3MNOW
CORRECT WRONG PARTIAL PENDING
DISCLOSURE AUDIT · TR12M
Transparency audit (trailing 12 months): how often this creator discloses holdings, promotions, and conflicts
HOLDINGS DISCLOSEDTimes the creator disclosed holding the asset0
PROMOTIONS TAGGEDPaid promotions that were labeled as such0
“NOT ADVICE” DISC.Standard disclaimers included0
ZERO DISCLOSURERecommendations with no disclosure at all60
DELETED CONTENT · ARCHIVED
Content the creator deleted after publishing (archived by GuruScope)
NO ARCHIVED CONTENT
PREDICTIONS63 PREDICTIONS
US market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

More foreign capital inflows will continue to come into the US market due to global allocation strategies.

COR—CONF 60
^GSPC[AVOID]
2026-06-06

The influencer is personally not taking the risk and reward of investing in the S&P 500 at current levels.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

If the S&P 500's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio reverted to 30 (which is still extremely high), the market would be at 5,000 points.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Fiserv[BUY]
2026-06-06

Fiserv's P/E ratio for 2026 will likely be seven.

PND—CONF 60
Fiserv[BUY]
2026-06-06

If Fiserv avoids bankruptcy and its P/E ratio reverts to 15, it could achieve a 2x return in a year to a year and a half.

PND—CONF 60
Fiserv[BUY]
2026-06-06

Fiserv has a potential 3x upside to $180 within the next three years, based on a target EPS of $12 and a 15x P/E ratio.

PND—CONF 60
CHTR[BUY]
2026-06-06

Charter Communications has a very possible 3x upside return.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
CHTR[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

Charter Communications has a potential 5x loss.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
CHTR[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

Charter Communications' interest costs will increase from five to six or 6.5 billion over the next few years due to debt refinancing at higher rates.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
the market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

For every dollar invested now, the market capitalization is likely to increase by $5 to $8 due to the inelastic market hypothesis and existing inflows.

PND—CONF 60
53 MORE
market capitalization[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

One trillion dollars from buybacks will result in a five trillion dollar increase in market capitalization.

PND—CONF 85
stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

Given expected net inflows of two trillion dollars per year, the stock market will increase by at least 10 trillion dollars according to the inelastic market hypothesis.

PND—CONF 85
JD.com[BUY]
2026-06-06

JD.com is a much better investment than JD Health because JD Health's value is practically not priced into JD.com's market cap, indicating JD.com is cheap.

PND—CONF 60
JD Health[AVOID]
2026-06-06

JD Health is not a cheap investment.

PND—CONF 85
TripAdvisor[AVOID]
2026-06-06

Platforms like TripAdvisor that lack a strong competitive moat will slowly lose traction over time.

PND—CONF 85
CL=F[SECTOR_ROTATION]
2026-06-06

Oil prices are expected to see a normal inflection point around 2028-2029.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
CL=F[BUY]
2026-06-06

Building a 15-20% oil position through 2026-2027 by collecting dividends and reinvesting will be a profitable strategy.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Swiss Mountain Resort Titlis[BUY]
2026-06-06

Swiss Mountain Resort Titlis should generate more money over time due to investments in new systems and increasing visitor numbers.

PND—CONF 60
my portfolio[HOLD]
2026-06-06

My portfolio will continue to perform at 10-15% regardless of market conditions, including a potential 50% crash or a 10% S&P 500 gain.

PND—CONF 60
private credit[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

Private credit will not have a significant impact on the market.

COR—CONF 60
government debt[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

Issues in government debt will be the trigger for the next big financial cycle.

PND—CONF 60
economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

Some version of hyperinflation is coming due to current economic policies.

WRG—CONF 60
robotics industry[AVOID]
2026-06-06

The mass production of robots will lead to an oversupply, making it difficult for companies like Tesla to profit from them.

WRG—CONF 60
Wolters Kluwer[HOLD]
2026-06-06

Wolters Kluwer's entrenched businesses are resilient and cannot be easily replaced, even by AI.

PND—CONF 85
market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

The market consistently overreacts, overshooting both on the upside and the downside when pricing assets.

COR—CONF 85
TSLA[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

Tesla's stock price can increase even when the company's results are poor, due to passive investment flows into index funds.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
TSLA[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

Elon Musk will likely employ marketing tactics and invent new initiatives to maintain Tesla's high stock price and market capitalization.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
TSLA / SpaceX[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

A merger between Tesla and SpaceX could result in a combined market capitalization of 2 trillion to 2.5 trillion, attracting significant global stock inflows.

WRG—CONF 35
KWEB[BUY]
2026-06-06

Chinese internet AI stocks, represented by KWEB, currently in distress and down, present an opportunity for value investors.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
Tencent[BUY]
2026-06-06

Tencent is a growth stock that is currently available at a cheap price, making it a potential buy.

PND—CONF 35
Stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

As long as net cash inflows continue into the market, stocks will go up, but if those inflows revert, the market will fall, potentially even worse.

COR—CONF 85
^GSPC[AVOID]
2026-06-06

The S&P 500 is a scary investment at its current valuation.

PND+0.0%CONF 85
^GSPC[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-06

The market will eventually drop.

PND+0.0%CONF 60
General market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The current financial market situation is the biggest financial bubble in history and will not end well.

PND—CONF 85
General market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The market will experience an 80% crash in real terms.

COR—CONF 60
Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

A proper recession is likely to occur, given the absence of one in 17 years.

COR—CONF 60
US Government Finances[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The current level of government debt and interest payments will become unsustainable and 'not work anymore' in the next few years.

PND—CONF 85
US Government Debt / Interest Payments[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

US government interest payments will perhaps reach two trillion dollars in the next five years.

PRT—CONF 60
General market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

Hyperinflation will occur, causing markets to keep going up but with destructive consequences in real terms.

WRG—CONF 60
US Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The increasing burden of government debt and rising interest payments will make the current economic system unsustainable in the next few years.

COR—CONF 85
US Economy[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

A proper recession is highly probable given that the economy has not experienced one in 17 years.

WRG—CONF 60
Financial market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-05

The current financial market environment constitutes the biggest financial bubble in history, which will inevitably end badly with either an 80% crash in real terms or hyperinflation.

WRG—CONF 85
PDD[AVOID]
2026-06-04

PDD's existing businesses (Pindoo and Temu) will continue to face competitive pressure from JD and Alibaba, leading to declining margins.

PND+1.9%CONF 60
PDD[AVOID]
2026-06-04

Pinduoduo's declining margins suggest that its existing businesses lack a strong competitive moat, which will negatively impact future profitability.

PND−0.4%CONF 60
PDD[AVOID]
2026-06-04

Pinduoduo's existing Teu and Pindoo businesses have reached their growth ceiling and will no longer achieve high growth rates.

PND−0.4%CONF 85
BRK.A / BRK.B[HOLD]
2026-06-03

Berkshire Hathaway's operating earnings will double to $80 billion per year in 10 years, representing a 7% return.

PND—CONF 60
General market / Semiconductors[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-06-03

The current market environment, especially in semiconductors, is another financial bubble.

PRT—CONF 85
Semiconductors[AVOID]
2026-06-03

The current market, particularly the semiconductor sector, is experiencing a speculative bubble similar to historical bubbles like the dot-com era.

COR—CONF 85
Berkshire Hathaway[HOLD]
2026-06-03

Berkshire Hathaway's operating earnings are projected to double to $80 billion per year in 10 years.

PND—CONF 60
Pabri[BUY]
2026-05-30

Pabri (an airport in Turkey) is targeting to get its dividend yield back to 8%.

PND—CONF 60
ADBE[BUY]
2026-05-30

Adobe (ADBE) is a very interesting investment situation due to its recent significant price drop.

PND−0.4%CONF 60
FLO[BUY]
2026-05-30

Flower Foods (FLO) is an interesting investment opportunity due to its 12% dividend yield.

PND+0.5%CONF 60
Food brands[BUY]
2026-05-30

Food brands yielding 10% or higher are still growing and represent interesting investment opportunities.

PND—CONF 60
stock market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-30

The current stock market, having experienced valuation expansion similar to past bubble peaks, is poised for a 60% decline in real terms.

PRT—CONF 85
CHTR[BUY]
2026-05-30

Charter Communications (CHTR) stock has a 3 to 5x potential.

WRG−5.7%CONF 85
^FVX[BUY]
2026-05-29

US 5-year Treasuries are becoming attractive investments compared to the S&P 500 due to their 5% yield.

PND+5.3%CONF 60
US market[GENERAL_MACRO]
2026-05-29

The current US market resembles Japan's market in 1989, implying a similar negative outcome of multi-decade stagnation.

PND—CONF 85
equities[AVOID]
2026-05-29

The current Wall Street Journal recommendation to go 90% into equities signals a peak bubble, implying a market downturn is imminent.

WRG—CONF 85
SpaceX[AVOID]
2026-05-27

Retail investors who buy into the SpaceX IPO will likely become 'bag holders' due to its extremely high valuation, which benefits early investors who sell at inflated prices.

PND—CONF 85
CHTR[BUY]
2026-05-26

Charter Communications' aggressive share buybacks, combined with declining capex and growing free cash flow, have the potential to push the stock significantly higher, even to a three to five-fold return.

WRG−6.5%CONF 85
ADBE[BUY]
2026-05-26

If Adobe successfully monetizes its AI integrations, its P/E ratio will expand from 14 to 30-40, leading to significant stock upside in addition to growth.

PND+6.3%CONF 60
CHTR[BUY]
2026-05-25

Charter Communications has three to five times upside.

WRG−6.5%CONF 60
Fiserv[BUY]
2026-05-25

If Fiserv grows free cash flow by 50% over the next 3-4 years, its P/E ratio will increase to 15, resulting in a 3x return.

PND—CONF 60
DEEP ANALYSIS · CONFOUNDERS · CONSENSUS
CONFOUNDERS · CLASSIFIED · n=3
External factors that may have influenced prediction outcomes beyond skill
oversimplification
n=1
The guru's track record is preliminary, with only 21 scored predictions out of 63 total. This small sample size, particularly the low number of scored 'buy' recommendations (3), may not fully represent long-term performance.
timing issue
n=1
Many predictions, especially macro calls, have stated long-term horizons, but their outcomes are currently assessed over a relatively short period, which could skew immediate accuracy metrics.
oversimplification
n=1
The overall 0% accuracy is heavily influenced by the 0% accuracy on 'buy' recommendations, despite a higher 66.7% accuracy on 'general macro' predictions. This suggests varying proficiency across different prediction types.
CONSENSUS · TOP ASSETS
Most frequently predicted assets with accuracy breakdown
CHTR3—
^GSPC—
Fiserv—
General market1150%
PDD—